ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Latest position of Recon:
3033N 08355W

Approaching the north-west quad in the next 10 to 20 minutes.

got at least an hour and half to a center fix though

[HurricaneBrain]

I have a question about how Arthur is displayed on the Storm2K graphic. It looks somewhat like the center of the storm is moving north over Florida, instead of roughly 60-100 miles offshore. Is that reflecting a particular model?

The cyclone symbol is enlarged purposely to catch attention of viewers and is not representative of the area a storm covers.

I was referring to the graphic's relation to the storm's track, rather than the area covered by the storm.

The S2k track tends to shade more area (wider area) than shown on the NHC graphic, but the centers of each of the tracks are the same.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looking like a couple of the 0z model runs are shifting slightly back to the west. Slightly.

[got ants?]

Can't stay up for NHC's 2:00am update. See y'all in the morn...

[WxEnthus]

so the mlc and llc are very near each other.. however... interesting thing has happened over the last hour the otherwise stationary system has begun to move.. I bet recon gets out there and find it relatively stacked..

If it's jogged west at all then it might have coupled with the llc

[Aric Dunn]

so the mlc and llc are very near each other.. however... interesting thing has happened over the last hour the otherwise stationary system has begun to move.. I bet recon gets out there and find it relatively stacked..

If it's jogged west at all then it might have coupled with the llc

or vice versa.. fact .. we really have not known the structure because a complete run by earlier recon never sampled important areas... also the mid level circ is very dominant and likely if the brief mid level shear that hit it earlier had it de-coupled has abated then the llc likely going to be pulled ( in a sense) back under the mlc


also as it gets closer to the radar the data becomes more reliable.. definitely appears to be on nw to wnw heading going to be very close to cape Canaveral by morning..

[Time_Zone]

Of course this crappy little storm is going to have to make its way to Nova Scotia...just to simply ruin a potentially nice day. *sigh*

[Hammy]

We're headed into diurnal max and there has been sustained weakening of the convection despite it appearing to make a comeback earlier, and the deeper convection almost seems to be separating from the main circulation and moving farther east as the storm moves NW. Not to mention the upper clouds over east central Florida seem to be pushing back southeast whereas earlier they were moving in a more northward direction.

[Aric Dunn]

should have a center fix from recon
in the next 30 min
and being the convection is pretty minimal .. likely going to stay at current intensity.. maybe up to 60 mph.

[lester]

...ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 79.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

...ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 79.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

bad scheduling of recon...

[WxEnthus]

...ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 79.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

bad scheduling of recon...

Agreed. I've always wondered why they schedule recon at such odd times. It would seem that scheduling the plane to reach the storm and begin readings an hour or so before the update would be better.

[Aric Dunn]

next set of minobs should be close or through the center..

[MaineWeatherNut]

Still not much in the way of winds in the north-west quad... 38kts is the highest winds recorded so far...

[Aric Dunn]

pressure about 50 mile outside the center already at 1003... center pressure probably around 997

oh and all indications are its not de-coupled

[AdamFirst]

Still not much in the way of winds in the north-west quad... 38kts is the highest winds recorded so far...

That's because the NW quadrant is probably the weakest in the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Still not much in the way of winds in the north-west quad... 38kts is the highest winds recorded so far...

That's because the NW quadrant is probably the weakest in the storm.

it is and relative motion plays a part too.. its not the right front quad..

[Hammy]

Satellite appearance looks like it's continuing to degrade after taking a nice big gulp of dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite appearance looks like it's continuing to degrade after taking a nice big gulp of dry air.

yeah some dry air got pulled in.. all data suggest after this not much left to deal with if at all...

[Extratropical94]

Latest HDOBs interpolate a 997 mb pressure.