ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

What I don't get is why NHC would cancel the mission but up the chances for development like they did.

I think their reasoning for this is the proximity of a nearby buoy that will be able to determine surface observations, coupled with the slow progression of steering currents and the cost factor involved in flying a mission. I would have preferred to see recon, but I can see the counter argument as well.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see more Recon flights cancelled in the future with them cutting funds slightly.

[SeGaBob]

UsTropics That makes sense to me...I would have preferred recon as well.

[summersquall]

.
Hopefully this is as close as 91L gets. May be a stormy week on the Treasure Coast?

[MGC]

91L is looking good this afternoon. Just needs a bit more organized convection near the center. Agree with NHC on recon cancel. It is quite evident by sat loop that 91L has a well defined low level circulation. IMO it will likely be designated a TD tomorrow as the system slowly organizes......MGC

The above it the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[SeGaBob]

So overall are the chances of 91L affecting land (other than NC) going down or is there still time for that to change?

[NDG]

What I don't get is why NHC would cancel the mission but up the chances for development like they did.

I think their reasoning for this is the proximity of a nearby buoy that will be able to determine surface observations, coupled with the slow progression of steering currents and the cost factor involved in flying a mission. I would have preferred to see recon, but I can see the counter argument as well.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see more Recon flights cancelled in the future with them cutting funds slightly.

But can somebody explain to me why the Recon was sent to 90L in the BOC right when it was clearly making landfall near Veracruz MX?

[Nimbus]

I noticed a slight north south elongation in the low clouds, that is usually a sign that rapid intensification is not imminent. You can also see it in the ASCAT. Maybe this afternoon at the diurnal max there will be a major convective burst that centers the low level circulation.

East coast of Florida could get lucky if it stayed elongated.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection flaring up now throughout 91L, including a very nasty line along most of Florida's east coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[USTropics]

I think their reasoning for this is the proximity of a nearby buoy that will be able to determine surface observations, coupled with the slow progression of steering currents and the cost factor involved in flying a mission. I would have preferred to see recon, but I can see the counter argument as well.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see more Recon flights cancelled in the future with them cutting funds slightly.

But can somebody explain to me why the Recon was sent to 90L in the BOC right when it was clearly making landfall near Veracruz MX?

That's a great question. The only thing I can think of is the Mexican government asked if they would check it out or the NHC felt obligated because of its proximity to land. Another 12-24 hours over water and I think a minimal TS would have been designated. Did they end up completing that mission or did the NHC call back the recon plane before it was able to investigate the area?

[NDG]

On hd visible satellite I can clearly see a tight LLC that has formed, now it is somewhat naked, near 29.5N & 77.3 W

[tolakram]

But can somebody explain to me why the Recon was sent to 90L in the BOC right when it was clearly making landfall near Veracruz MX?

The model that develops this the most, the Euro, says nothing much will happen until 48 - 72 hours from now. If anything happens.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Hmm. 91L is getting its act together. A nice burst under llc can be seen.


My analysis for 91L and other areas in Western Pacific: http://goo.gl/4Aga6X

[TheStormExpert]

I noticed a slight north south elongation in the low clouds, that is usually a sign that rapid intensification is not imminent. You can also see it in the ASCAT. Maybe this afternoon at the diurnal max there will be a major convective burst that centers the low level circulation.

East coast of Florida could get lucky if it stayed elongated.

The way it looks shear needs to still drop until it can actually try to get it's act together.

[TheStormExpert]

Meanwhile people along the eastern coast of FL have been enjoying a beautiful day along the beaches with surf temps in the mid 80s in most part of central and northern FL, which is very rare for the end of June which most times cold upwelling takes over from Vero Beach northward towards St Augustine this time of the year with SSTs along the immediate coast falling down into the low to mid 70s, something about this year in this part of the Atlantic.

Was the case until about 1pm this afternoon when Showers & T-Stms started popping up inland of NE Coastal Palm Beach County. These photos are from Juno Beach, FL.

[KatDaddy]

The 2014 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season will likely have its first TD early this upcoming week and possibly TS Arthur toward the end of the week as the area of low pressure off the SE US is becoming better organized:

Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Nimbus]

On hd visible satellite I can clearly see a tight LLC that has formed, now it is somewhat naked, near 29.5N & 77.3 W

Nearly naked as it was this morning. The dry shear is blowing the convection south, the actual surface feature is up near 29.7 not moving much.

This would have been classified a depression if the hurricane hunters had flown, better to wait and see if it picks up convection over night.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Any surface observations like bouys or ship reports?

[jaxfladude]

From what little I have read/heard/seen here and elsewhere, 91L can still have some impact on my area of N.E. Fla. T.D./Weak T.S. during the July 4th week >>>>if anything<<<< ......right or not?


=============
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
=============

[northjaxpro]

From what little I have read/heard/seen here and elsewhere, 91L can still have some impact on my area of N.E. Fla. T.D./Weak T.S. during the July 4th week >>>>if anything<<<< ......right or not?


=============
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
=============

We have to monitor the system carefully. It is possble TD / TS conditions could impact Jax area mainly Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. It is also possible 91L could miss this area as well. Just have to monitor closely as things can change and they often do with these tropical cyclones.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if we will see any center reformations further south as the northerly shear is still pushing the convection south?