WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Recon would have been the true answer to the intensity question that we have. Lack of funding terminated that but hopefully in the near future it is restablished.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Recon would have been the true answer to the intensity question that we have. Lack of funding terminated that but hopefully in the near future it is restablished.

Because sometimes, Dvorak gives unusual intensity estimates, and sometimes puts the wrong center position of a cyclone. Yeah, I agree with putting recon back, and it gives better information and guidance for storm intensity.

[mrbagyo]

Recon would have been the true answer to the intensity question that we have. Lack of funding terminated that but hopefully in the near future it is restablished.

Because sometimes, Dvorak gives unusual intensity estimates, and sometimes puts the wrong center position of a cyclone. Yeah, I agree with putting recon back, and it gives better information and guidance for storm intensity.

when the bases are still in the Philippines, recon was not a problem, but since 1987, when the new constitution was signed... i don't know what happened. sorry for some politics there.

[stormcruisin]

JMA is only at 85.5 knots (1 min ) without recon just a lot of guesstimates atm .

Actually, they may be close to JTWC's estimate at 90 kts. The difference is only by 4.5 kts, so nothing major.

As we seen with the hurricanes in the epac 5 knots can make the difference between
c4 to c5.



On another note i don't want to sound ridiculously bullish but the way this is shaping up and the fuel source in the track.
I don't think its unreasonable to draw a inference to dare i say it another possible Haiyan strength super ty is on the cards here in the next few days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA is only at 85.5 knots (1 min ) without recon just a lot of guesstimates atm .

Actually, they may be close to JTWC's estimate at 90 kts. The difference is only by 4.5 kts, so nothing major.

As we seen with the hurricanes in the epac 5 knots can make the difference between
c4 to c5.



On another note i don't want to sound ridiculously bullish but the way this is shaping up and the fuel source in the track.
I don't think its unreasonable to draw a inference to dare i say it another possible Haiyan strength super ty is on the cards here in the next few days.

As of the latest JTWC update, 140 kts is forecast, and it is quite early to forecast that, so yeah maybe even stronger than 140 kts.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Prognostic Reasoning of the 0300z warning by JTWC.

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED
BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED 25-NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL
OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY
08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING
SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND NAVGEM, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIERS THAT ARE
BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.//

[dexterlabio]

Where are the storm2k posters from Okinawa? I remember some who are active in the forum when the typhoon season heats up. And this howler is forecast to affect the island!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If the forecast of JTWC holds true, or even stronger later on, it would be one of the strongest typhoons to ever strike Okinawa. I hope our members and guests from Okinawa would start preparing for this monster typhoon. STAY SAFE, OKINAWA!

[supercane4867]

ECMWF is sticking on a more westward track, I doubt it may trends toward Ishigakijima rather than Okinawa

[dexterlabio]

If the forecast of JTWC holds true, or even stronger later on, it would be one of the strongest typhoons to ever strike Okinawa. I hope our members and guests from Okinawa would start preparing for this monster typhoon. STAY SAFE, OKINAWA!

I know some posters in Okinawa who are willing to ride out the storm and enjoy the force of nature. I'm sure they are more thrilled than scared hearing the news of Neoguri threatening Okinawa. That's fine, though. The military bases there are sturdy enough to withstand typhoon-force winds. Talk about Japanese engineering. Just no surfing when the storm comes...

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF is sticking on a more westward track, I doubt it may trends toward Ishigakijima rather than Okinawa

Both GFS and ECMWF are keeping the track west of the island. They trended a bit west from the previous runs showing a sharp recurve just east of Okinawa. Streamline analysis shows the STR extension holding strong, so I think a track between Naha and Ishigakijima is possible...

[stormcruisin]

GFS has it directly over Narha.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC has it at the western tip of Okinawa, while the JMA has it at the central part of the island as it recurves to the NNE.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Um... The JTWC Warning #9 forecast of Neoguri is even stronger than JTWC Warning #10 of Haiyan. So, maybe stronger than Haiyan is possible?

JTWC Warning #10 for Haiyan had the storm peak at 130 knots.



Meanwhile, JTWC Warning #9 of Neoguri has it peaking at 140 knots.

[stormcruisin]

I would expect at some stage in the up coming 72 hours the JMA will raise the intensity forecast to violent then the beast will be off the leash.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive ECMWF run. 896 mb around the eyewall, and the pressure right at the eye might even be lower! This is what euro6208 was telling us about. From being the most conservative, here comes being the most bullish among the global models.

[stormcruisin]

Very big broad system unlike the midgit systems we have been seeing of late.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC updated their best track, and they have upgraded Neoguri to a category 4. So, Neoguri was a TS 12 hours ago, and now at category 4! Very very rapid intensification.

08W NEOGURI 140705 0600 16.0N 137.0E WPAC 115 937

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Neoguri a chance at being a stronger typhoon if it continues to intensify. Conditions appear to be advantageous for further strengthening. We will see what comes out of this...

Analysis on Neoguri and other tropical systems: http://goo.gl/FpWqpA


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EDITED: From Strong to Stronger

[stormcruisin]

Its already a l large strong typhoon.