ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[PTrackerLA]

252 hours into SE Texas as strong TS/minimal cane

[blp]

:uarrow: Seems to be finally coming closer to reality. Conditions probably won't be favorable.

What conditions are you referring to? The gyre just takes longer to evolve on this run. This is also one run. You need to look at several runs.

Shear doesn't look bad, just thought there could be other factors influencing it like possible dry air?

Dry air is not the problem land interaction and longer consolidation of the low is.

[Ntxw]

So this run of the GFS kind of nudged toward the Euro? Until beyod truncation which then it does it's thing?

Of course we're talking about run 7-10 days out so it's mostly speculation either which way

[meriland23]

Eh hem....

[Kingarabian]

So this run of the GFS kind of nudged toward the Euro? Until beyod truncation which then it does it's thing?

Could be a trend. Models are actually shifting towards a Florida threat anyways.

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[TheStormExpert]

Looks like if it stays weak it heads West towards TX/(maybe)Mexico. If it strengthens and doesn't get disrupted by the Greater Antilles it heads East towards East Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS also had it slow down considerably just SE of the Texas Gulf Coast before being pulled north towards TX/LA border by an approaching trough it looks like.

[TheStormExpert]

So this run of the GFS kind of nudged toward the Euro? Until beyod truncation which then it does it's thing?

Could be a trend. Models are actually shifting towards a Florida threat anyways.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The only models that have this a Florida threat are the more unreliable models like NOGAPS and CMC which(of course) rapidly intensify it prior to hitting Florida.

[blp]

18z closed it off in 36hrs on 00z looks like by 72hrs it closes but then brushes land. Gatorcane mentioned this earlier these setups take time to consolidate. Might not be that far off.

[Kingarabian]

So this run of the GFS kind of nudged toward the Euro? Until beyod truncation which then it does it's thing?

Could be a trend. Models are actually shifting towards a Florida threat anyways.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The only models that have this a Florida threat are the more unreliable models like NOGAPS and CMC which(of course) rapidly intensify it prior to hitting Florida.

Well I mean the did Euro show a SC hit yesterday.

[TheStormExpert]

Models right now are really not that useful since 96L has not developed yet. Once this mess finally consolidates then we should be able to get a much better handle of what will happen.

[Steve]

No one would completely disagree with that, but it kind of goes without saying. As for the 00z run, it gets there a little differently, but landfall is almost in the same spot if not a slight shift farther south and west

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting Ptracker. Some people believe that 2002 is a hard analog. Almost looking like an Isidore track (super fun storm here as was Lili also 2002). Thinking the rest of the run would suggest a landfall farther west rather than getting caught up with the N Yucatan and spinning off north. This run should be farther west toward Texas. 990 at that resolution could be pretty strong. System is slower to strengthen in this run

It's very interesting that even with the slower speed and weaker system in the near term that it still finds its way to the northern GOM in the 00z GFS. I've been seeing 2002 as an analog as well and I think Lili would have been nearly catastrophic for this area had it struck in late August as opposed to late October.

High Pressure hasn't been able to become established for any length of time this entire summer along the coast so I think we will remain vulnerable the next two months.

[Steve]

Maybe so. But we got high pressure and mid-upper 90s for most of the rest of the week

[supercane4867]

00z HWRF has a strong TS or hurricane hitting Dominica

[meriland23]

This will be a interesting one to watch. I feel a lot of it will depend on if it where over hispaniola\cuba it goes.

[Steve]

I'm going to sleep, but 00z CMC goes up mostly east of the Bahamian Kingdom and deepens on it's way out. Gfs keeps it much weaker earlier and links the continental ridge with pulsing high pressure in the Atlantic to direct 96L westward.

[somethingfunny]

I think the models might be developing 96L too quickly.

[Alyono]

Models right now are really not that useful since 96L has not developed yet. Once this mess finally consolidates then we should be able to get a much better handle of what will happen.

can we stop saying this falsehood over and over again?

[Alyono]

looking at the models, it seems the environment is going to be on the hostile side in the Caribbean, especially the central Caribbean. GFDL not showing much and SHIPS has strong shear