ATL: Ex NINE

[TheStormExpert]

Well said. The models and the NHC are already well aware of the negatives; it's not like they're not including them in their calculations. It's not what the shear is now, but what it's forecast to be, that matters.

I know it is likely to develop one way or another at this point, but there have been many times this season where the NHC's TWO development percentages have greatly busted. (Mostly due to them buying into the GFS's many phantom storms this year. )

To be fair, the ones that busted were beyond 48 hours and for waves that hadn't yet emerged. I would say this has a decent chance of developing, I think the biggest question is will it be fully tropical or hybrid.

Wouldn't it more likely be Tropical than Subtropical given the location (GoM, W. Caribbean), and it's Latitude?

[chaser1]

Are there any actual surface observed to substantiate the 0Z pressure/winds, or was that satellite estimated?

[gatorcane]

Well, I walked away for a few hours, but certainly expected continued organization. Convection sure has waned.... diurnal? Water vapor shows the dry air on it west side. Center looks to be at 20 & 95W. I'm not sure if that indicates the eastward motion already, or simply a reorganized COC. Either way, the development curve it appeared to be on has at least temporarily halted. I'm not so sure that they'll send recon out if still looking like it's present self; Perhaps they'll fly on Wed. if model support continues. Then, I'd guess the Gulfstream would serve the greatest benefit.

Yeah doesn't appear to be building and retaining any deep convection but the pressure is gradually dropping, down to 1006MB on the last update.

AL, 93, 2014101912, , BEST, 0, 186N, 962W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2014101918, , BEST, 0, 188N, 960W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2014102000, , BEST, 0, 190N, 959W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2014102006, , BEST, 0, 193N, 959W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2014102012, , BEST, 0, 196N, 958W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2014102018, , BEST, 0, 198N, 955W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2014102100, , BEST, 0, 195N, 952W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[ozonepete]

Wouldn't it more likely be Tropical than Subtropical given the location (GoM, W. Caribbean), and it's Latitude?

I'd lean that way overall. The reason it could be subtropical is that it could pull in some polar air from the north on the other side of the stationary front that will be nearby in a couple of days. In effect it would combine with the front and you'd have a tropical circulation with some mid-latitude low characteristics. But that all depends on how far north it drifts as it moves eastward.

[FireRat]

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY:



Convection appears to be shifting east just by the looks

[Hammy]

Every single model develops this at this point and a lot take it east--is it pretty likely at this point that we could have a tropical storm moving straight east across the Yucatan and emerging in the Caribbean?

[SouthFLTropics]

There is still really good rotation down there in the BOC and it definitely looks to be on the move towards the east. In fact, I'd say that the COC has dipped SE some and is now close to 20N and 95W. Don't let the IR fool you...I think we have steadily increasing organization as shown on the RBG loop. That said, it does seem to be feeling the impacts from some dry air to the west as well as some westerly shear. I can definitely bite on what the models are showing in that this gets kicked across the Yucatan as a decent amount of energy, gets left behind, and then really spins up.

SFT

[ozonepete]

Wow right on cue.

Within 72 hours it will be captured in the present conditions i don't see 93L getting any better then it is now a TD at best.

And I promise I won't save this prediction of yours and bring it up on Thursday or Friday.

If read between the lines I agree with wxman57's post in the other thread.

Wxman57 is a highly respected colleague. So I won't bring his up either.

[Sanibel]

Cross over systems tend to act strange when they get back over water. They don't always refire right away.


On the other hand sometimes a scattered weak sheared mess is just a scattered weak sheared mess.

[ozonepete]

Just to be clear on my end, I understand all of the arguments against much development here and there are some good points. But though some here think the NHC hasn't done well with forecasting development this season I think that overall, when a system has reached this stage, they've actually done quite well. So to me I see no reason to go against the majority of models and the NHC which point to an increasing likelihood of something stronger than a TD developing after it passes the Yucatan. And maybe much stronger if it winds up wandering over the NW Carib or the Bahamas. But the main factor against development, the shear, is not currently forecast to be bad in the area this is headed. So it's not guessing, it's educated guessing.

[fci]

Is there any history for a tropical system to develop in the Bay of Campeche and cross over The Yucatan from the West?
Wilma did the opposite and then turned around in the Gulf of Mexico but its crossing of the Yucatan was the usual East to West.
Mitch comes to mind but it crossed Central America from the East, emerged in the Bay of Campeche and skirted The Yucatan before hitting Florida.
Wrong Way Lenny didn't cross The Yucatan but was my best recollection of going "the wrong way" in The Caribbean.
So, back to my original question; any history of what is suggested for 93L?
By the way, not logically buying the solution offered by Miami NWS that this will get to The Bahamas, stall and come back West.....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The overall setup is very complicated between Invest 93L and the upper-level trough digging down from the north, so it's not surprising to see such a wide array of opinions. If 93L crosses the Yucatan and gets stuck in the northwestern Caribbean like the GFS suggests, we could certainly have something significant. On the other hand, it's also possible that the system is simply absorbed into the frontal boundary without much of an issue. I consider both almost equally plausible right now.

[SFLcane]

Might not even develop at all. Looking like some rain for southern florida i don't buy that storm in the Caribbean.

[caneman]

Actually looks good to me. Now down to 1006 millibars.

[cycloneye]

I don't know what is going on that the SSD floater has stopped on Monday at 22:15 UTC. So here is the NRL image as of 6:30 AM EDT or 10:30 UTC.

[wxman57]

00Z EC shows what I think is a good possibility. Low remains very weak the next few days then merges with a cold front and tracks up the front.

[abajan]

I don't know what is going on that the SSD floater has stopped on Monday at 22:15 UTC. So here is the NRL image as of 6:30 AM EDT or 10:30 UTC.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/2m34sd0.jpg

Something certainly seems to be going on because I noticed this morning that this loop is also stuck on October 20, 2014.

[jlauderdal]

00Z EC shows what I think is a good possibility. Low remains very weak the next few days then merges with a cold front and tracks up the front.

that solution made perfect sense since this whole thing started in the global models runs thread..we have seen this setup so many times with the front and energy rides up before the whole thing is finally pushed on..heavy rain yesterday in dade and now raining hard at the house right by the coast in broward...going to be wet next 4 days in florida

[TheStormExpert]

8am TWO. NHC says it has become better defined.

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8am TWO. NHC says it has become better defined.

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

recon really going to burn Jet A going to that..will see