ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-wv-long.html

Dry air seems to be expanding a bit just north of the cirrus canopy, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that it's working the dry air out, if anything the last of the convection near the center is dissipating. Doesn't look like it'll be strengthening any in the next 12 hours and will probably weaken some.

[Alyono]

This is NOT weakening. We have an intensifying TC.

For developing TCs, pay attention only to the structure, not the convection. Improving structure is the tell tale sign of intensification

[bahamaswx]

Grand Bahama finally getting some much needed relief. Still more deep convection pushing over the Abacos though.

[lester]

down to 993 mbs apparently

[bahamaswx]

down to 993 mbs apparently

That can't be right? It jumped 20mb in one reading.

[lester]

down to 993 mbs apparently

That can't be right? It jumped 20mb in one reading.

I'm thinking that's an error somehow. I guess we'll see in the next VDM.

[MaineWeatherNut]

985mb on the next set... then starts going back up...

073330 2933N 07735W 8429 01282 9858 +172 +022 148035 035 028 000 03

[Alyono]

pressure an error. That is nowhere near the center

[Hammy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf_mslp_fltwnd.png

Given this and where the plane is the 985 is very likely an instrument error.

[bahamaswx]

997mb again. lots of 49kt SFMR's.

[chaser1]

Well, I for one do not see Arthur as presently exhibiting characteristics that would indicate to me that strengthening "will be" or "should be" commencing any time soon. The vertical structure that it fought to finally achieve is practically devoid of convection, and this in spite of an intense feeder band within its eastern semi-circle...which only appears to be robbing energy from its increasingly removed vortex. Water vapor still depicts dry air to Arthur's north, and outflow is unquestionably supressed in it's western semi-circle.

There is an apparent increase of Arthur's low/mid level cloud field surrounding its center and some hot towers could begin to pop at any time. Until such convection occurs, I cannot understand what driving mechanism would cause the storm to actually intensify further. Furthermore, without some COC co-located convection to occur soon, I could'nt imagine what type of pixie dust would magically keep Arthur's central pressure from starting to rise.

It's present structure from 500mb down looks pretty good, and yet Arthur is rather sick. I'm not a doctor, but looks like a case of "Tropical Rickets" (a thinning & softening of a tropical cyclone's convective bones)!

[bahamaswx]

Looks pretty good to me. Should refire at any time, and then we'll see some decent intensification.

[Hammy]

I'm still thinking that it will likely struggle for about the next 12 hours.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I'm still thinking that it will likely struggle for about the next 12 hours.

Convection is starting to popup around the CDO again... Looks like with in the next couple hours we could be looking at a totally different looking system.

[Hammy]

5am pushed hurricane intensity back to 36 hours now, current winds still 50 kt and pressure at 996. With that I should probably sleep at some point; I expect I'll wake up to find either a naked swirl or the beginning of rapid intensification

[ronjon]

Center appears to be tightening up on Melbourne RAD.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MLB&loop=yes

[TexasF6]

Arthur is wrapping up nicely on radar out of Melbourne Florida.....The banding around the center is clearly intensifying on the radar presentation.



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[xironman]

The final pass through the NE quadrant should be interesting.

Code: Select all

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)

[OuterBanker]

Gotta go find and fly hurricane flags. Now have learned to bring them in. Left them up during Isabel and drag from flags brought down the pole. Right now they won't fly, no wind. Hurricane watch here.

[xironman]

I wonder when/if Dare is going to evacuate Hatteras Island, if they lose rt 12 and strand the 4th July vacationers it would be a public relations nightmare.