ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

These definitely contaminated.

231400 2326N 07234W 8439 01584 0157 +161 +161 190038 040 056 035 00
231430 2328N 07235W 8437 01591 0163 +151 +151 193045 047 061 034 00
231500 2330N 07236W 8419 01608 0160 +155 +155 188041 048 059 032 00
231530 2331N 07237W 8423 01602 0153 +162 +162 182035 038 054 036 00
231600 2333N 07237W 8431 01592 0152 +166 +166 196029 034 058 032 00
231630 2335N 07238W 8433 01593 0153 +168 +168 217034 038 056 027 00
231700 2336N 07239W 8441 01589 0144 +170 //// 214026 035 048 012 01

[NDG]

Pressure only 1008mb but is surrounded by relatively very high pressures of 1015-1020 mb.

232700 2405N 07258W 8424 01568 0083 +180 +144 054011 014 019 000 03

[cycloneye]

1008.5 mbs as the lowest pressure as plane moved thru center.

[NDG]

Vortex, 1007mb, 44 knot SFMR, 48 knot flight level.

URNT12 KNHC 032353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032014
A. 03/23:26:30Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
072 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1491 m
D. 44 kt
E. 146 deg 30 nm
F. 188 deg 48 kt
G. 148 deg 39 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 18 C / 1515 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF304 0903A BERTHA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 148 / 39 NM 23:15:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 312 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225/14

[bahamaswx]

NHC did a great job forecasting the track with Bertha.

[jlauderdal]

NHC did a great job forecasting the track with Bertha.

they are very very good with track inside 72 hours and very good at 5 days and getting better each year..very difficult forecasting with all the variables in place to nail it like they do literally within a few miles either way of the track forecast and when you look at the mean they are almost dead on

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

03L BERTHA 140804 0000 24.1N 73.0W ATL 50 1007

[Nimbus]

At the diurnal max plenty of convection and the last few visible frames showed signs of good inflow.
Doesn't appear to be a lot of shear from the trough at the moment.

[TheStormExpert]

At the diurnal max plenty of convection and the last few visible frames showed signs of good inflow.
Doesn't appear to be a lot of shear from the trough at the moment.

Don't you mean Diurnal Minimum?

I though Diurnal Maximum was right before sunset or dawn?

[Equilibrium]

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

03L BERTHA 140804 0000 24.1N 73.0W ATL 50 1007

Think that proves the point BERTHA was never a open wave how does a open wave in under 12 hour with no centre in dry air and shear at the time organise into a 50kt TS.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[galaxy401]

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

03L BERTHA 140804 0000 24.1N 73.0W ATL 50 1007

Think that proves the point BERTHA was never a open wave how does a open wave in under 12 hour with no centre in dry air and shear at the time organise into a 50kt TS.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It may have been an open wave the last two days since there wasn't any strong evidence of a center but it is a TS now without a doubt.

[NDG]

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

03L BERTHA 140804 0000 24.1N 73.0W ATL 50 1007

Think that proves the point BERTHA was never a open wave how does a open wave in under 12 hour with no centre in dry air and shear at the time organise into a 50kt TS.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It may have been an open wave the last two days since there wasn't any strong evidence of a center but it is a TS now without a doubt.

It was not an open wave at all times or I can also say that it did not have a closed low at all times. Friday as it approached Martinique and Dominica its circulation closed, 3-4 hrs later opened up to later during very early Saturday morning close again to later during that morning to open up again.

IMO, The reason why the NHC never downgraded her down to an open wave because there was always fairly strong model support that strengthening was going to happen once it would pass the Lesser and Greater Antilles. If models would had been forecasting for it to weaken to a tropical wave I guarantee that they would had definitely downgraded her at the first evidence that it did not have a closed circulation.

[NDG]

Unflagged 54 and 57 knot winds, very low rain rate btw.

011100 2432N 07308W 8429 01559 0079 +185 +159 119038 042 043 001 03
011130 2434N 07306W 8436 01561 0083 +185 +150 121046 047 049 000 03
011200 2435N 07305W 8428 01571 0080 +193 +147 126044 046 054 000 00
011230 2436N 07304W 8445 01557 0080 +201 +139 124048 051 054 000 03
011300 2437N 07302W 8424 01576 0076 +210 +127 127053 054 057 001 00
011330 2438N 07301W 8433 01572 0086 +200 +128 135049 051 058 002 03
$$

[NDG]

58 knot flight level winds.

011900 2451N 07247W 8437 01602 0149 +152 +144 155054 058 045 002 01

[tolakram]

IR, zoom 2, no color. You can add color by changing the URL -> ir1.pal to ir2.pal

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/03/be ... -stronger/

Tried to keep up with recon info as best I could.

[Equilibrium]

The way this is going BERTHA may well be a Cat1 within the next 4 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 19 C / 1512 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0903A BERTHA OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT 046 / 32 NM 01:19:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 043 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080/9

[Aric Dunn]

finally recon confirming the that center did in fact reform earlier north of the nhc position this morning.. and clearly its intensifying.

[Hammy]

I noticed on the recon path the winds some ways west of the center are calm, so that shows the circulation is fairly small, this could aide in quicker intensification if the conditions continue to improve.