ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

RAMDIS: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

and

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL042014&starting_image=2014AL04_4KMIRIMG_201408232007.GIF

[GTStorm]

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

RAMDIS: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

and

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL042014&starting_image=2014AL04_4KMIRIMG_201408232007.GIF

Looks like a big blob of non-moving mess, to me.

[meriland23]

It looks like strengthening..

[bamajammer4eva]

What's stopping this from going Northeast??

Better image at this link-image below is distorted on this site for some reason

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm1.GIF

[hectopascal]

North of the disturbance winds are strong enough for this system to be named, however it lacks a distinct low level circulation centre and remains elongated.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jinftl]

Convection starting to pop near to the center?

[KBBOCA]

Thanks for the correction. I am wondering though, why do we have models, if not to give an idea of where a storm might track?
Realize i am not questioning your answer, it just raises questions for me as to why are models mentioned within a forecast, if they are not considered. Something I am sure many others would like to know as well.

The models are used to make the forecast itself

It seems there's a bit of confusion in the discussion. The models help determine the direction of the track and thus the LOCATION of the cone. But the models (and their uncertainty) do not influence the WIDTH of the cone.


UPDATE: sorry, I hadn't seen the mods note about not continuing the cone discussion here when I wrote this. Didn't mean to continue the tangent.
-----
I'm just an amateur, please refer to NHC for official info!

[ozonepete]

North of the disturbance winds are strong enough for this system to be named, however it lacks a distinct low level circulation centre and remains elongated.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

from the 5PM discussion:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined circulation this afternoon.

Though they are referring to the circulation from low to mid-levels, they wouldn't say that if there was no clear LLC.

[nativefloridian]

looks like south florida is dodging the bullet again. Yay!!

[Alyono]

the disorganized state may be why this misses Florida

The deep layer steering, as indicated by the deep BAM, would send this into South Florida. The mean layer analysis also indicates this

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

the shallow steering favors the NE motion

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[tropicwatch]

Wind shear has come down quite a bit this evening which could lead to convection building.

[Frank2]

This WV loop shows how unimpressive this looks at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

can't say I'm upset - people with medical issues and hurricanes are not a good combination for many reasons...

Frank

[nativefloridian]

This WV loop shows how unimpressive this looks at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

can't say I'm upset - people with medical issues and hurricanes are not a good combination for many reasons...

Frank

Agree with your comment. IMO it looked better before being classified TD. Well, I hope it remains unimpressive (as has been the case) and just goes away.

[tolakram]

In my opinion once an LLC starts to organize you always get a drop in convection as it re-organizes around the LLC. If it's healthy we should see more and more banding as the night goes on.

30 frame IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30

[rolltide]

In my opinion once an LLC starts to organize you always get a drop in convection as it re-organizes around the LLC. If it's healthy we should see more and more banding as the night goes on.

30 frame IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30

You can really see the SW shear on the west side of TD 4 on that loop. Unless or until that lets up I don't see this getting any stronger.

[Alyono]

the shear has relaxed already. Down to less than 10 kts

[rolltide]

the shear has relaxed already. Down to less than 10 kts

It's still blowing all the tops off any thunderstorms on the west side.

[tolakram]

the shear has relaxed already. Down to less than 10 kts

It's still blowing all the tops off any thunderstorms on the west side.

The latest analysis shows pretty low shear. Higher values away from the center does not matter as much.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[rolltide]

the shear has relaxed already. Down to less than 10 kts

It's still blowing all the tops off any thunderstorms on the west side.

The latest analysis shows pretty low shear. Higher values away from the center does not matter as much.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

If it can't build any convection on the west side due to the storms being blown off I think that matters. Just my opinion though.

[tropicwatch]

Nice blow up close to the COC, tops not having a problem now.