ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[gatorcane]

Images

Strong and recurving so far...big shift to the east

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe a very quick recurve on Canadian. Moving NNE by hr 54

Yep GEM looks like it is on a quick recurve now like the ECMWF but a bit more west....

Models are definitely flip flopping...probably another 24 hours before the models lock onto a solution.

[Javlin]

I had a feeling the GFS would shift east. Can't wait to see what the other models show

?? Post by blp shows a significant shift W for the same time frame.

[Alyono]

no ridging at all on the Canadian run

[Bocadude85]

I had a feeling the GFS would shift east. Can't wait to see what the other models show

?? Post by blp shows a significant shift W for the same time frame.

Yes it's west of the 12z GFS but East of the 18z GFS which showed landfall in SFL

[Hurricaneman]

The CMC has been flopping like a fish from the GOM to recurve to GOM to recurve so it IMO isn't too reliable right now

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[blp]

The Euro is really going to make things interesting. It has been a long time since I stayed up for Euro run. It might just do this time.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is defiantly now in my top 3 "model watching" storms, along with Debby from two years ago (flipping from Texas to the Panhandle, and forcing the NHC into huge track changes) and Wilma (which had models flipping all across the GOM just before it entered the Yucatan).

[SFLcane]

00z nogaps hurricane sfl..

[SeGaBob]

The Euro is really going to make things interesting. It has been a long time since I stayed up for Euro run. It might just do this time.

Just my opinion but I don't think it will be that interesting myself.

[Steve]

no ridging at all on the Canadian run

That's strange because the CMC has the US SE Ridge centered further east than the GFS did at 500 (KY vs. NC). You would have thought it would be over the top of 96L if it was farther east. Odd thing is that it splits off a piece of energy in the Gulf. I don't think that's so much uncertainty but its interpretation if 96L pulls out that perhaps the wave axis or a feature breaking off (possibly a racing low level center?) and continuing west. Could be what some of the models started picking up on yesterday as well as Joe B's potential threat next week for the Gulf. At the same time, the CMC overdoes low pressure formation in the tropics all the time, so it could be nothing.

Gut is that the CMC is too fast unless it does split off low level energy.

[blp]

I can't remember a time when you had so much flip flopping amongst the models. Really points the uncertainty here.

[NDG]

Now I am worried that the Canadian is not pointing to FL any more, lol.

[Bocadude85]

00z nogaps hurricane sfl..

Looks like this all is going to come down to how far west 96L can make it in the next 24 hours. Models have definitely trended west this evening. If this does recurve east of Florida I think we will have some nerve racking moments as it passes by.

[blp]

Looking at the GFS I see less weakness and more ridging than the 18z but yet it heads North. Could it be that since the system is stronger and more vertically stacked that somehow the 500mb ridge is not strong enough. It just looks like it tries to puch through that ridge.

18z


00z

[SFLcane]

[floridasun78]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al962014/0_ms1.png

that all having going west

*sg edited post to remove IMG tags - the image is directly above this post... thanks

[floridasun78]

going bed see how models do over night good night

[NDG]

Looking at the GFS I see less weakness and more ridging than the 18z but yet it heads North. Could it be that since the system is stronger and more vertically stacked that somehow the 500mb ridge is not strong enough. It just looks like it tries to puch through that ridge.

18z
http://oi58.tinypic.com/ind6ae.jpg

00z
http://oi57.tinypic.com/j9wn5k.jpg

Yes, it could be that because it shows it getting stronger but still does not make sense of it moving north towards the building ridge in the mid Atlantics and NE US unless the Atlantic ridge to the east of it is the one that sends it north and then NE.

[blp]

Euro ensembles for earlier.