WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WGMY50 PGUM 051625
FFWMY
GUC010-051915-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0005.141005T1625Z-141005T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
225 AM CHST MON OCT 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND OF GUAM

* UNTIL 515 AM CHST

* AT 209 AM CHST...RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE ISLAND OF GUAM. THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON.
AS THE TYPHOON MOVES NORTH OF THE ISLAND IT WILL DRAG THIS
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUAM. EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHER HALF OF GUAM OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 515 AM CHST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1350 14502 1350 14468 1361 14470 1372 14485
1373 14493

$$

ZIOBRO

[supercane]

Peak wind and minpressure summary so far:
Andersen Air Force Base: sustained W 36kt with gusts to 52kt (at 1643 UTC), min pressure 995.6mb
Guam Int'l: sustained W 30kt (at 1523) with gusts to 43kt (at 1628), min pressure 997.0mb
Saipan: sustained E 32kt (at 1501) with gusts to 52kt (1603), min pressure 1000.3mb

As mentioned by others, unfortunately neither Rota nor Tinian reporting. This as the typhoon is making its closest approach.

924
WTPQ61 PGUM 051605
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP192014
2 AM CHST MON OCT 6 2014

..152 AM CHST...1552 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE

AT 152 AM CHST...1552 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE GUAM
WSR-88D RADAR AT ELEVATION 0.5 DEGREES AND A HEIGHT OF 6200 FEET.
THIS IS 25 MILES EAST OF ROTA. THE WELL DEFINED EYE HAS A DIAMETER
OF 5 MILES.

MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 23 MPH (20KT) IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
(285 DEGREES).

SUMMARY OF 152 AM CHST...1552 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 145.6E
ELEVATION...6200 FEET

ABOUT 70 MILES...050 DEGREES...NE OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS GOOD.

[CrazyC83]

Radar data suggests an intensity around 80 kt right now (velocities peak near 95 kt at 6,500 feet).

[supercane]

Worst apparently over for Guam and Saipan as typhoon continues to move away.
Peak wind gusts and pressure summary:
Andersen Air Force Base: 59kt (see METAR from 1658Z), min pressure 995.6mb
Guam Int'l: 43kt (at 1628), min pressure 997.0mb
Saipan: 52kt (1603), min pressure 1000.3mb

Latest JMA advisory from 18Z:
WTPQ50 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1419 VONGFONG (1419)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 14.5N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 16.5N 139.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 071800UTC 17.8N 134.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 081800UTC 18.7N 132.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 091800UTC 21.0N 132.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 101800UTC 24.0N 133.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT =

328
WTPQ61 PGUM 051902
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP192014
5 AM CHST MON OCT 6 2014

..452 AM CHST...1852 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE

AT 452 AM CHST...1852 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM WSR-88D
RADAR AT ELEVATION 0.5 DEGREES AND A HEIGHT OF 5400 FEET. THIS IS 40
MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA. THE WELL DEFINED EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF 4
MILES.

MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 20 MPH (17KT) IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
(295 DEGREES).

SUMMARY OF 356 AM CHST...1756 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 144.8E
ELEVATION...5900 FEET

ABOUT 70 MILES...360 DEGREES...N OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS GOOD.

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z out:

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.5N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.3N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.0N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 144.3E.
TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

The 2100 UTC warning graphic.

[cycloneye]

0300z warning graphic.

[euro6208]

What a very boring typhoon...last night way better than now as it is very calm...

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20141006/NEWS01/141006002/Guam-dodged-another-bullet-Typhoon-Vongfong-passes-

A typhoon storm with winds blowing more than 100 miles per hour rolled over the Mariana Islands this morning with the island of Rota experiencing the worst conditions.

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20141006/NEWS01/141006003/About-70-Rota-without-power-no-injury-major-damage-reported

About 70 percent of Rota’s residents don’t have power this morning in the aftermath of Typhoon Vongfong, but the island survived without reported injuries, island officials said.

[dexterlabio]

Maybe VWS kept it in check? Last night it was about to undergo what would have been a successful EWRC, but its core just got disorganized. Its sweet spot might be in the same area where Phanfone became a Cat4...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS IT BEGAN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 060532Z 37
GHZ SSMI PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. TY VONGFONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING STR. INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST THEN SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST HALF BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 886 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE TOPS AND COMPACT SPIRAL BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 061132Z AMSU-B PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BECOMING APPARENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER IMPROVE LEADING TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. TY VONGFONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING STR. INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST THEN SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST HALF BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[RaijinWeather]

As per JTWC, Upper level analysis indicates the Typhoon Vongfong remains in an area of light to moderate(10 to 20knts) vertical wind shear. However the VWS is offset by the excellent equatorward outflow and additionally poleward outflow is becoming apparant
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 32sair.jpg

[euro6208]

Guam and the Marianas dodged another bullet despite being in the line of fire all year...

[cycloneye]

Good news from the Marianas that no big damage occurred as the Typhoon moved thru.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2100z warning graphic.

[cycloneye]

Up to 100kts at 00z Best Track.

19W VONGFONG 141007 0000 17.0N 136.5E WPAC 100 948

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like it's about to explode:

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC warning graphic.