URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014
...HAGUPIT QUICKLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF PULUWAT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PULUWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE...AS
WELL AS SATAWAL...FARAULEP...WOLEAI...FAIS...ULITHI AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS IN YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...WOLEAI...FAIS AND
ULITHI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 855 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PULUWAT THIS
MORNING AND SOUTH OF SATAWAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE A TYPHOON
WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN WOLEAI AND FARAULEP WEDNESDAY.
...PULUWAT...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40
MPH SHOULD BE COMPLETED. TS HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH
OF PULUWAT...HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD PUT PULUWAT IN
OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IT IS ADVISED TO SECURE ANY
LIGHT OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN OVER. PROTECT
PROPERTY AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE WEATHER AND
ROUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO EAST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH BY NOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 T0 25 MPH BY SUNSET.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 9 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
INUNDATION ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
...SATAWAL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED. SECURE ANY LIGHT OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT
MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN OVER. PROTECT PROPERTY AGAINST COASTAL
INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE WEATHER AND ROUGH SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 12
TO 15 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
INUNDATION AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. REVIEW YOUR
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A TYPHOON. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT
FARAULEP...AND BACK TO WEST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT WOLEAI. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WHILE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AT FARAULEP AND SOUTHWEST AT WOLEAI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 12
TO 15 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
INUNDATION AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.
...FAIS AND ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A TYPHOON. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 55 TO 70 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 900 AM CHST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
ZIOBRO
WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
JTWC 21:00 UTC warning has track similar to JMA bending a little to the west at the end.
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 5.9N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 6.7N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.8N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.6N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 6.1N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 5.9N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 6.7N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.8N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.6N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 6.1N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145263
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
Interesting discussion by JTWC regarding the long range intensity and track.
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED. A 011649Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WHILE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES WHICH IS ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY THE
INCREASE IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS JAPAN AND CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT TAU 96 WHICH WILL CREATE A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD RESULT IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE SURGE EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE VWS AFTER TAU 96 WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA,
IS SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE CHAOTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96.
DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED. A 011649Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WHILE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES WHICH IS ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY THE
INCREASE IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS JAPAN AND CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT TAU 96 WHICH WILL CREATE A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD RESULT IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE SURGE EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE VWS AFTER TAU 96 WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA,
IS SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE CHAOTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96.
DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 01/2032Z
C. 6.02N
D. 147.95E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT
AGREES; MET WAS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1641Z 5.87N 149.03E MMHS
01/1649Z 5.87N 149.17E SSMI
01/1722Z 5.90N 148.92E TRMM
LONG
B. 01/2032Z
C. 6.02N
D. 147.95E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT
AGREES; MET WAS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1641Z 5.87N 149.03E MMHS
01/1649Z 5.87N 149.17E SSMI
01/1722Z 5.90N 148.92E TRMM
LONG
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
Up to 55kts and moving strait westward on 00z Best Track:
22W HAGUPIT 141202 0000 5.9N 147.0E WPAC 55 982
22W HAGUPIT 141202 0000 5.9N 147.0E WPAC 55 982
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
OT: There is something different about the JTWC nowadays...normally they will increase intensity as reflected by the Dvorak numbers. I don't know if they are using other tools than Dvorak technique.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
Definite landfall on latest JMA track.
TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 2 December 2014
<Analyses at 02/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°55'(5.9°)
E147°10'(147.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°25'(6.4°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°25'(7.4°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E134°55'(134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)
TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 2 December 2014
<Analyses at 02/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°55'(5.9°)
E147°10'(147.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°25'(6.4°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°25'(7.4°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E134°55'(134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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^interesting that the 12z JMA model hints a recurve and yet they show possible landfall...
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
Typhoon Warning for Yap.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
1100 AM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014
...HAGUPIT CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI AND
YAP IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.9N 147.0E
ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 870 MILES EAST OF KOROR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.0 EAST.
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT PASSED
SOUTH OF PULUWAT EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAGUPIT IS PASSING SOUTH OF
SATAWAL...AND WILL BE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO WOLEAI AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.
$$
MCELROY
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
1100 AM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014
...HAGUPIT CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI AND
YAP IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.9N 147.0E
ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 870 MILES EAST OF KOROR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.0 EAST.
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT PASSED
SOUTH OF PULUWAT EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAGUPIT IS PASSING SOUTH OF
SATAWAL...AND WILL BE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO WOLEAI AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.
$$
MCELROY
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gatorcane
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- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re:
dexterlabio wrote:^interesting that the 12z JMA model hints a recurve and yet they show possible landfall...
Seems the JMA has gotten wiser and is putting more weight on the ECMWF which has generally been the most reliable model.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
No recurve now by JTWC.New peak intensity is 130kts.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC. A 012231Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHILE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP
TIGHTER ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON
THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASED STRUCTURE AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN LOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS JAPAN AND CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT TAU 96 WHICH WILL CREATE A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD RESULT IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE SURGE EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE VWS AFTER TAU 96 WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA,
IS SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE MIXED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96.
DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC. A 012231Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHILE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP
TIGHTER ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON
THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASED STRUCTURE AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN LOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS JAPAN AND CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT TAU 96 WHICH WILL CREATE A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND COULD RESULT IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE SURGE EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE VWS AFTER TAU 96 WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA,
IS SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE MIXED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON SLOW TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96.
DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS
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Nairobi
-
dexterlabio
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:dexterlabio wrote:^interesting that the 12z JMA model hints a recurve and yet they show possible landfall...
Seems the JMA has gotten wiser and is putting more weight on the ECMWF which has generally been the most reliable model.
The setup in the coming days is tricky and whoever aces the track will be this year's best performing model IMO. Of course experienced meteorologists can argue with or against a model simulation based on their knowledge.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
When will the HKO issue their own warning and forecast for Hagupit? For the past few years I've seen that agency performing well, even outsmarting both JTWC and JMA on some instances. Would be interesting to see their take on its track.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Nairobi wrote:ECMWF predicting 30 m/s winds at Guiuan on Saturday with well over 300 mm of rain during this event.
Not to be morbid, but is there actually anything remaining in Guiuan? Did they rebuild after Haiyan yet?
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Re:
dexterlabio wrote:When will the HKO issue their own warning and forecast for Hagupit? For the past few years I've seen that agency performing well, even outsmarting both JTWC and JMA on some instances. Would be interesting to see their take on its track.
According to their TC Track Information page, when it reaches 140E.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:
Not to be morbid, but is there actually anything remaining in Guiuan? Did they rebuild after Haiyan yet?
They are still in the process of rebuilding. Though I heard it may take more than 2 years to completely bring everything back to normal. Those people who lost their homes are still living under bunk houses. This is also the case in Tacloban and other areas in Leyte and Samar.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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