ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

New convection firing around center. This thing looks serious about intensifying.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[brunota2003]

This is probably the best explanation of the situation for those that do not know. The only thing I would correct is that I would wager it wouldn't be millions of dollars lost to the area and state, but billions. Other than that, I would say, spot on.

Yeah, I definitely know at least millions, though. Maybe statewide it is billions, the OBX alone, though, is easily millions. Regardless of whether it is an m or a b, a LOT of money gone if the wrong call is made.

[ronyan]

NOAA winds are indicating 55-60 KT

Yep. Hasn't really strengthened at all despite it's improved appearance. Good news. Hopefully it stays weak and doesn't get any stronger than a cat 1. As long as it keeps taking it's time like this, things don't look too bad. imo

You can make the argument that he has strengthened more based on the expanding wind field. This will cause it to have more serious coastal impacts. Regardless I think are going to see it ramp up to a hurricane soon.

[SunnyThoughts]

You folks up in the Carolinas stay safe. Its better to prepare and it miss you to the east, than to get caught with it coming right over you. It seems with this storm, a few miles might make a great deal of difference between getting possible hurricane force winds/gusts, and getting lower tropical storm force weather conditions. Stay safe and be prepared.

[Hammy]

this dry air is making everyone think its is a hurricane from the eye, which would not had formed if the dry air didnt come in.

There is very little dry air in the system now, and the plane reported a closed eyewall, and convection continues to form around the center. I don't think dry air has anything to do with it.

I'm noticing also that as the center comes closer to the Jacksonville radar, the ragged part that was showing up in the northern eyewall a few hours ago is solidifying, is this a result of it simply being closer, strengthening, or both?

[HurricaneBrain]

NOAA winds are indicating 55-60 KT

Yep. Hasn't really strengthened at all despite it's improved appearance. Good news. Hopefully it stays weak and doesn't get any stronger than a cat 1. As long as it keeps taking it's time like this, things don't look too bad. imo

It is strengthening... Sustained winds have been found at 65-70 mph since the 2pm update which had winds at 60 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

recon NE to east... quite a few 70 mph flight level.. still no to the center.. could have some higher..

going 65mph at 5 likely..

[MaineWeatherNut]

194100 3023N 07810W 8434 01570 0117 +149 +137 142060 063 040 011 00

63kt flight level wind and they are still a good distance away from the center with a Pressure of 1011.7

[got ants?]

NHC still has it NOT becoming a hurricane until the 24 hr mark. Any chance if they upped that to 12 hr mark, or less, the OBX would be evacuating? At least the tourists?

[cycloneye]

Plenty of 50's-60's winds at Air Force plane as it bound to second pass from NE to SW.

[Aric Dunn]

Plenty of 50's-60's winds at Air Force plane as it bound to second pass from NE to SW.

next set should be good about to go through that part of the eyewall on radar with the deeper returns

[NC George]

One thing I'd like to point about about evacuations is roads in Eastern NC have improved considerable in the past 20 years. Formerly, to reach the Outer Banks you had to drive down 1 of 2 (US 64 or 264) 2 lane roads that passed through many small towns for nearly 100 miles from the closest 4 lane divided highway. Now a 70 mph divided highway reaches with within 20 miles or so of the OBX, and you can cut right across Roanoke Island on a highway with a new large bridge, where formerly you had to snake through the town of Manteo. So the N portion of the OBX can (INHO) be evacuated much easier than in previous years. The only real problem with evacuations is the portion from Pea Island south, where Hwy 12 repairs/upgrades are being held in the courts by groups who want to build a long bridge to replace the sections that keep getting overwashed.

[NDG]

Unflagged 69 knot surface wind!!!

[MaineWeatherNut]

195700 2950N 07849W 8437 01462 0005 +151 +151 146069 071 059 034 00
195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 +156 +156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 +166 +166 160059 070 069 027 00

71 and 70 kt flight level winds...

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is it a hurricane?

[wxman57]

Unflagged 69 knot surface wind!!!

Doubtful surface winds are that high, given strongest FL winds only 71 kts. But clearly Arthur is well on its way to becoming a hurricane pretty soon - probably within the next 6 hours or so. I'd say surface winds in the 55kt range and climbing.

[Aric Dunn]

195700 2950N 07849W 8437 01462 0005 +151 +151 146069 071 059 034 00
195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 +156 +156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 +166 +166 160059 070 069 027 00

71 and 70 kt flight level winds...

yep that what I figured..

if on the next pass or the noaa plane finds similar then they will likely go to 70mph for advisory or upgrade...

not quite to the center.. next set will show the remaining data from the eyewall

[gatorcane]

I can't remember a tropical storm having this clear of an eye. If it is not a hurricane now, it should be soon if trends continue:

[cycloneye]

The last three pink are the 70's and 996mb and falling as plane still has not reached center.

[Hammy]

991.5 lowest pressure.