ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Syx6sic]

upgraded to 70mph and 992mb as of 5pm from what the weather channel just said

[Alyono]

I'd encourage people of the OBX to prepare for 2 categories higher than what NHC is indicting. Not understanding the peak as a cat 1 at all

[Syx6sic]

they just issued tropical storm warnnings for my area and virgina beach just got the notification on my phone lol

[cycloneye]

Read 5 PM advisory at the advisories thread (Still TS Arthur) (H Warnings posted)

[wxman57]

I'm getting a 6-hr movement of 358 deg. at 6.2 kts. A 3-hr movement toward 359 deg. at 7.3 kts.

[tropicwatch]

Sounds like they are going to keep it TS instead of upgrade. Kind of surprised

[wxman57]

Sounds like they are going to keep it TS instead of upgrade. Kind of surprised

It's not quite there, needs another 30 minutes...

[brunota2003]

I created a wind map going out 72 hours, using the NHC's wind probabilities maps as the base. The NHC updates those maps at 8 am, 2 pm, 8 pm, and 2 am...I used the 8 am maps, as the 2 pm maps didn't come out until after I was nearly done with the 8 am map...so this image is "old" now, but figured I'd share it, anyways. I used the 20% line for 40 mph, 58 mph, and 74 mph (35, 50 and 64 knots, respectively)...usually I do out to 120 hours, but this one is moving so quick that I decided to try 72 hours instead.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lester]

Sounds like they are going to keep it TS instead of upgrade. Kind of surprised

It's close, but not there yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Sounds like they are going to keep it TS instead of upgrade. Kind of surprised

It's not quite there, needs another 30 minutes...

yeah the eye is contracting.. if it develops any deeper convection closer to the center very likely going to higher..

[weathernerdguy]

Are they going to do a special advisory?

[ronyan]

NHC track shifted W, not a cane yet. The discussion by Avila mentions that there is still some dry air affecting Arthur in the mid-levels but acknowledges that both the GFS and Euro show significant strengthening over the next 36 hrs. There will be some big problems if he tracks any further W than indicated.

[SeGaBob]

Are they going to do a special advisory?

If it becomes a hurricane they will likely issue a update statement and leave the 5pm advisory products the same.

[WxEnthus]

Definitely appears that convection is wrapping in tigther to the center.. the is contracting.. in a sense

The good 'ol pattern where there is expansion of the wind field and then the center contraction as it intensifies.

[jaxfladude]

NHC track shifted W

and the concern level just went up.
Arthur(2014) may be one to remember, hope that is not the case...
Prayers are up for those in Arthur's future path.....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely appears that convection is wrapping in tigther to the center.. the is contracting.. in a sense

The good 'ol pattern where there is expansion of the wind field and then the center contraction as it intensifies.

exactly.. the eye diameter on the next pass is likely to be about half the size.. convection continuing to increase around the new smaller eye...

[Aric Dunn]

Given the contraction in eye diameter and the already 7 to 8 mb drop in pressure before the contraction. the next af pass coming up in the next 30 min should have pressures down around 987 from 992

[kunosoura]

The water vapor loop looks like it Arthur might soon pull in some dry air from the N/NW. Pro mets, do you think its enough to temper the impressive intensification we've been seeing the past few hours?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[torrea40]

Arthur also hasn't done the "growing" thing while ingesting dry air. Some hurricanes grow large in dry air and unable to intensify quickly.

[KBBOCA]

Nice to see the Charlotte Observer has a live updating posting of Twitter feeds from the NWS and emergency mgmt offices linked on its front page:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/0 ... 7R2F7FKS-g