ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CarolinaNBANFL]

This storm is looking impressive I THINK it is a hurricane already and I THINK this storm is going to be stronger than expected. Today the air was humid in North Carolina ahead of this cold front and that means the air is soaked and that means NO MORE DRY AIR PROBLEM. I think rapid intensification is VERY POSSIBLE with this storm over the next 48 hours. I also question the turn it is getting CLOSE to South Carolina and I think Wilmington, NC is not out of the woods.

[Syx6sic]

I still don't think it will max out at 85mph like they have listed

[got ants?]

Looking at what was that blob over in the GoM, it seems it is being wicked over to the Atlantic. How will that effect Arthur?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/flash-wv.html

[ronyan]

Looking at WV loops, there is still a pocket of drier air to the N of Arthur.

[JtSmarts]

It's interesting that some of the local stations' in-house model projections (WECT for example) have Arthur following the more inland path that the HWRF has been advertising.

[SunnyThoughts]

realized it was the wrong storm, and couldn't erase it lol so sorry everybody

[got ants?]

Looking at WV loops, there is still a pocket of drier air to the N of Arthur.

Doesn't seem to be effecting Arthur atm.

[tolakram]

I still don't think it will max out at 85mph like they have listed

What are you thinking will be the reasoning? Are you predicting stronger or weaker?

[Syx6sic]

I still don't think it will max out at 85mph like they have listed

What are you thinking will be the reasoning? Are you predicting stronger or weaker?

I am thinking in my own opinion with how its getting his act together now and based on how recon is findng things I am going to say it maxes out at 95 to 100mph

[got ants?]

It's interesting that some of the local stations' in-house model projections (WECT for example) have Arthur following the more inland path that the HWRF has been advertising.

Just took a gander at Hurricane Spaghetti and everyone BUT the NHC has Arthuer coming across OBX. Why is the NHC the only one sticking to thier guns?

[KBBOCA]

Granted it was 8 hours ago, but I was surprised by a Tweet from Jim Cantore:

Heading to Hatteras Island to greet #Arthur. Once Arthur passes by conditions will improve rapidly Friday night into the weekend.

from here:
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/4 ... 1148953600


Talking about rapidly improving weather conditions AFTER the storm would seem to encourage people to stay and not evacuate... I hope he doesn't have cause to regret words that seem to downplay the risk.


JUST AN AMATEUR OPINION. Refer to NHC for official information!

[torrea40]

Arthur has remained compact, the smaller circulation has more potential for RI.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

How powerful can this storm get?

[Aric Dunn]

Eye diameter down to about half the size from the first pass from recon today..

[JtSmarts]

It's interesting that some of the local stations' in-house model projections (WECT for example) have Arthur following the more inland path that the HWRF has been advertising.

Just took a gander at Hurricane Spaghetti and everyone BUT the NHC has Arthuer coming across OBX. Why is the NHC the only one sticking to thier guns?

I'm watching a few NC local streams and WECT and WITN have been showing that their models have the storm coming much more inland.

[tolakram]

It's interesting that some of the local stations' in-house model projections (WECT for example) have Arthur following the more inland path that the HWRF has been advertising.

Just took a gander at Hurricane Spaghetti and everyone BUT the NHC has Arthuer coming across OBX. Why is the NHC the only one sticking to thier guns?

I would guess it's there long term experience with typical model errors and the location of the storm. As the models shift west the NHC tends to shift slowly in case the models suddenly shift back. In the long term this leads to a more reliable track. When you're right you look like a genius, but when wrong you look stubborn and slow to react. I prefer the way they do it.

[got ants?]

Granted it was 8 hours ago, but I was surprised by a Tweet from Jim Cantore:

Heading to Hatteras Island to greet #Arthur. Once Arthur passes by conditions will improve rapidly Friday night into the weekend.

from here:
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/4 ... 1148953600


Talking about rapidly improving weather conditions AFTER the storm would seem to encourage people to stay and not evacuate... I hope he doesn't have cause to regret words that seem to downplay the risk.


JUST AN AMATEUR OPINION. Refer to NHC for official information!

Why does this not surprise me?

[NDG]

AF recon getting ready to make another pass, is going to go through that heavy convection in the SE quadrant of the eyewall.

[weathernerdguy]

Why are they still doing it?

[MGC]

Arthur is not having much issue with the dry air to its north. Intensifying at a steady clip currently. Should be a hurricane soon. Wind field expanding....where have I heard that before? People along the NC coast should get moving and get out. Lets just hope Arthur starts making the turn real soon and pass offshore......MGC