ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

Me. looks like at this moment more of a motion toward Hilton head sc. Looks like it need to start is turn to the ne soon

[vacanechaser]

anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

Yep.. Go look at the recon plots in the other thread to and you will see it in the vortex plots.




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[TheAustinMan]

anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

Here's the radar you speaketh:


Source: Wunderground

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

Yep.. Go look at the recon plots in the other thread to and you will see it in the vortex plots.






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I mentioned that.. but even more so over the last 30 min...

[Blown Away]

@chrisdbianchi
Mandatory evacuation for Hatteras Island, NC just issued: #Arthur http://darecountyem.com/mandatory-evacu ... as-island/

Bummer, got to do it... Cat 1/2 is easy breezy for Hatteras folks... Lots of vacations ruined and local Hatteras economy hurt... Life on an island...

[tropicwatch]

anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

Yep.. Go look at the recon plots in the other thread to and you will see it in the vortex plots.






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I mentioned that.. but even more so over the last 30 min...

Center is showing up better on Jacksonville's radar 124mi

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I said it last night, and I am sticking by it so far. I think first landfall is going to be Bald Head Island or Southport NC. Keep in mind, the beaches of Brunswick County are south facing beaches, and with the models trending west, Arthur could make a pit stop on his way to the Outer Banks.

[stephen23]

Latest GFS did show this thing right off the coast on SC then riding up the coast till landfall. Makes you wonder if it has the true handle on things. The one weird thing about latest GFS was it appeared much weaker then other models. Making landfall in NC at I believe 1001mb. Wonder if it was smelling out something we don't know. Like land interaction or being so close to shoreline.

[Hammy]

Should we be getting at least one more pass through the NE quad before all said and done with the current Air Force mission?

[Aric Dunn]

Should we be getting at least one more pass through the NE quad before all said and done with the current Air Force mission?

yeah af going to do SW to NE this pass then likely head home.. noaa should be out there a while after that..

[MaineWeatherNut]

Whens the next AF Recon mission? Over night like last night?

[cycloneye]

Whens the next AF Recon mission? Over night like last night?

Yes,two overnight missions by Air Force and NOAA.

[Aric Dunn]

its going to be left of the 5pm track in about an hour or 2 if it does not make a turn ..

[stephen23]

what's going on with this thing on radar presentation right now? In my opinion looked a lot better just an hour ago. Center looks to have gotten really elongated and ragged. Anyone else see that?

[Aric Dunn]

what's going on with this thing on radar presentation right now? In my opinion looked a lot better just an hour ago. Center looks to have gotten really elongated and ragged. Anyone else see that?

they all do that especially when there is dry air around..

[tolakram]

I said it last night, and I am sticking by it so far. I think first landfall is going to be Bald Head Island or Southport NC. Keep in mind, the beaches of Brunswick County are south facing beaches, and with the models trending west, Arthur could make a pit stop on his way to the Outer Banks.

A hit that far south and west would bring it inland into NC and not exiting until south of Virginia Beach. No model is showing that solution and the euro, though it's shifted west, has a left bias and is still just barely offshore. Now Beaufort, in my opinion, does need to keep a close watch on this one because a landfall there seems like at least an outside possibility.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[torrea40]

1.6mb pressure fall in 90 minutes between fixes from the same aircraft. Gradual strengthening.

[TheAustinMan]

what's going on with this thing on radar presentation right now? In my opinion looked a lot better just an hour ago. Center looks to have gotten really elongated and ragged. Anyone else see that?

It doesn't look too shabby to me. Perhaps it's just headed a bit further away from the Melbourne radar and is still on the outside of Jacksonville short-range radar so the otherwise poor radar presentation would be due to radar seeing the higher cloud tops. Just a guess.

[weathernerdguy]

In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...

[Aric Dunn]

ok af recon made the turn heading sw to NE ... should be a good one..