ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1601 Postby Time_Zone » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:55 pm

Frank2 wrote:Same as folks here who are people I disagree with - don't get me started...


Says the biggest downcaster on the forum, year after year. :wink:
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1602 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:55 pm

Frank2 wrote:Same as folks here who are people I disagree with - don't get me started...


Its coming to colorado !!
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Re:

#1603 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...

Some of the Analog seasons for this season that were also El Niño seasons had early season surprises followed by a quiet remaining part of the season. Alicia and Andrew are what come to mind right now, but I'm sure there are better examples if I research more.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1604 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

I have a feeling if the front picks it up and carries it while cradling some of that gulf moisture with it this thing could hit Berlin, Germany tomorrow. I also hate wish casters. :lol:
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#1605 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

not upgraded yet. Not enough evidence to justify the upgrade
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#1606 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

We will see when that trough provides the northerly, poleward outflow channel for Arthur. At the moment it's a bit suppressed (and nothing special from Gonzo NOAA9) but equatorward channel is quite interesting. I believe 45 or 50 mph winds were sampled in the upper levels from that channel.

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#1607 Postby Syx6sic » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

They kept it at 70mph presure 990 moving north at 8
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1608 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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#1609 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:59 pm

No hurricane until at least 11--8pm still has 70mph but pressure down 2mb.
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#1610 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:59 pm

they went with 70 mph..
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#1611 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:00 pm

Surface winds are likely at 60-65kt range based on what recon found so far which is marginal for an upgrade to hurricane
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#1612 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:00 pm

It's getting there. I think it will be a hurricane at 11:00. Just opinion (see below).
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Re:

#1613 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:they went with 70 mph..


you have to love continuity .. lol
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#1614 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:00 pm

Right - and I'd bet that the 11 TCD will mentiom SST's if they haven't aleady...

Crossing isotherms is one major factor in strenthening or weakening systems...
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1615 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:they went with 70 mph..

Makes sense to me, they should wait and see a few hours if it continues to organize and improve, means chances of upgrade are higher @ 11pm.
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#1616 Postby got ants? » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:05 pm

Seriously? Just below Hurricane status?

I wonder if they are watching this site and all the intel you guys are pouring over. I wonder if they feel you guys are stealing thier thunder, and, I wonder if they didn't hold back on it just in spite of us... lol
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#1617 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:06 pm

I think all this is doing is making people in Carolina go oh well it is still only a tropical storm along with tourists and if any evidence supported a hurricane they should of upgraded it. See we here in Carolina only care enough about a storm along the coast when it reaches hurricane strength and even then it is only a pay attention mode.
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#1618 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:08 pm

No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...
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#1619 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:10 pm

I would not be surprised to see Hurricane Arthur @ 11PM. He continues to become better organized.
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#1620 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:10 pm

65 knots and a pressure that low means this thing is actually a hurricane if I do not have something twisted there. I seen 65 knots was found along with a 984 mb reading. That is hurricane all day even for someone like me doesn't take rocket science. I know NOAA found that reading but it wasn't discredited or at least I didn't see a post that said it was erroneous.
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