ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[ninel conde]

its a good thing the ridge in the nw atlantic that has been forecasted by the models for sometime didnt materialize.

[hurrtracker79]

its a good thing the ridge in the nw atlantic that has been forecasted by the models for sometime didnt materialize.

NAM is now out to sea per 0Z run...

[rockyman]

Unlike the 5pm discussion, the NHC 11pm discussion specifically mentions the UKMET and NAVGEM western solutions:

As the trough begins to lift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. The track guidance becomes very divergent at that time. The UKMET and the NAVGEM models build enough ridging north of the cyclone to steer it across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model currently forecasts a quick right turn with the cyclone moving well out to sea. The ECMWF and the GFS keep a stronger ridge east of the cyclone and thus forecast a more northward motion east of the southeastern United States, followed by a northeastward turn. However, the GFS does show a westward wobble just north of the Bahamas before the turn. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous track, and it lies a little to the left of the TVCA consensus and the center of the guidance envelope. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal.

[ninel conde]

i think if the euro comes in tonight out to sea then its time to write off td 4 as a threat.

[Florida1118]

i think if the euro comes in tonight out to sea then its time to write off td 4 as a threat.

I'm so glad we can write off all the other models and scenarios, and the fact this is a low confidence situation, because a run of the euro says so.

[ninel conde]

i think if the euro comes in tonight out to sea then its time to write off td 4 as a threat.

I'm so glad we can write off all the other models and scenarios, and the fact this is a low confidence situation, because a run of the euro says so.

we have a winterlike trof in the nw atlantic and if both the euro and GFS say recurve tonight then the writing is on the wall.

[Blown Away]

NHC usually doesn't use "Low Confidence" is their discussion, so they are seeing the same model flopping we are. Like most of us we see the Euro continue to show a recurve well east of the CONUS and go with it. The Euro is like Tom Brady/Patriots and the Ukmet is the Dolphins, every once in a while the Dolphins beat Tom Brady.

[fci]

For as long as the NHC says that there is uncertainty in the track forecast I don't write off anything.
Maybe that's just me.
Not quite sure what "write off" means anyway.

[bamajammer4eva]

Well I sure hope the Euro trends away from what the 12z showed.

http://imgur.com/YvASd9L

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z initialized

[Hurricaneman]

If the OP0zEuro moves towards the 12zEuro ensembles that would be bad news

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

9h

[tolakram]

18h

[tolakram]

27h

[Alyono]

shifted east at 24 hours by a fair bit from the 18Z

[tolakram]

36h

[jinftl]

Wonder why the NHC mentions the uncertainty in the forecast track in their 11pm discussion - even going as far as to mention the different track scenarios not reflected in the cone when it is a clear cut, done deal on here?

No one is questioning the consensus of the model runs showing a miss to the U.S. and maybe some of the Bahamas - but models are a tool used to forecast, not the forecast itself.

[tolakram]

45h

[Alyono]

GFS goes for immediate recurve

[tolakram]

54h