ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CarolinaNBANFL]

Looks the same as last night and that was cause by dry air.

[SouthernBreeze]

An eye, related or not with dry air?

comparing that image with one from 3 hours ago, looks like mainly northern movement, with even a little western movement

[Hammy]

-70C convection is building and continuing to wrap around, whereas last night at this time there was a gaping hole in the western half of the circulation, along with weakening -50C and warmer cloud tops.

An eye, related or not with dry air?

comparing that image with one from 3 hours ago, looks like mainly northern movement, with even a little western movement

could be a wobble unless the storm is slowing down again.

[Time_Zone]

When's recon scheduled?

[ravyrn]

CrazyC83, I didn't want to clog up the recon thread since there isn't a discussion one. Do you got AF303's HDOB, VDM, and pic? Let me know if you want me to take care of any of them and also if you need to go to bed at some point. I'll be up for at least a few more hours.

[ravyrn]

When's recon scheduled?

AF303 just took off a little while ago. It's passing Mobile Bay right now.

[Duddy]

When's recon scheduled?

2AM I believe. Not sure if that's when they are leaving or estimated time they will arrive at the storm.

[RL3AO]

Keep this thread on topic which is about the meteorological discussion of Arthur

[HurriGuy]

Arthur looks to have a shield protecting itself more from dry air instead of earlier where there was a clearer inflow channel where the dry air was funneling in.

[Time_Zone]

Arthur really doesn't seem to be doing too much right now...starting to look less and less likely he becomes more than a weak cat 1 imo. He doesn't have much time.

Seems to be fighting the same battle against the dry air as he has been his entire life.

[ozonepete]

Hurricanes aren't really rain makers unlike tropical storms, also Arthur is going to be speeding right by the coast.

Whoa no! Although many extreme rain records from Tropical cyclones are from tropical storms, many hurricanes are, and have been, extreme rain makers. Hurricane Mitch in Central America is but one incredible example.

[HurriGuy]

Arthur really doesn't seem to be doing too much right now...starting to look less and less likely he becomes more than a weak cat 1 imo. He doesn't have much time.

Arthur is a small system moving at a very moderate pace at around 8 mph. It has plenty of time. Small storms can rapidly intensify rather than bigger storms.

Also the trough has not fully made it to sweep away the dry air.

[ravyrn]

Anyone got a link to a .kml file that has higher resolution than this when zoomed in for Google Earth? Sorry to be slightly off-topic, but looking for better resolution when posting recon pics and there is no recon discussion thread.

EDIT: Fixed image link.

[supercane4867]

Anyone got a link to a .kml file that has higher resolution than this when zoomed in for Google Earth? Sorry to be slightly off-topic, but looking for better resolution when posting recon pics and there is no recon discussion thread.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.kml

[HurriGuy]

Big convection flaring up on north/northeast side. Be nice to see that try and get to the northwest side.

[weathernerdguy]

Hurricanes aren't really rain makers unlike tropical storms, also Arthur is going to be speeding right by the coast.

Whoa no! Although many extreme rain records from Tropical cyclones are from tropical storms, many hurricanes are, and have been, extreme rain makers. Hurricane Mitch in Central America is but one incredible example.

What I meant was that, as long as it is not a monster or is stalling for like 5 days, North Carolina is going to be fine.

[tolakram]

Radar signature continues to improve this evening.

saved loop



IR also shows convection continuing to increase.

Speed this loop up for the full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

[CarolinaNBANFL]

Eye wall gone. Like I said weakening and I agree with weathernerdguy NC will be JUST FINE.

[HurriGuy]

I think this big outburst of convection could not have come at a better time for Arthur.

[weathernerdguy]

Eye wall gone. Like I said weakening and I agree with weathernerdguy NC will be JUST FINE.

Have you see anything drop yet, right now, it is NOT a hurricane.