ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

0z HWRF is bad news for the OBX http://i.imgur.com/Q2UTz2n.png

First time the HWRF has shown Cat 2 winds so far

95.7kt. Isn't that right at cat3?

[supercane4867]

0z HWRF is bad news for the OBX http://i.imgur.com/Q2UTz2n.png

First time the HWRF has shown Cat 2 winds so far

Actually only 70kt at surface, it was much stronger in some of the previous runs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 01L_12.png

[HurriGuy]

Sticking with EURO. It did not really intensify till Thursday and looking at it now, it looks like that intensification is beginning.

[HurriGuy]

New scan just came in. This is it IMO.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Impressive little July storm! Such a small system...very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not seeing it, which doesn't mean it's not there. Do you have a better sat view that shows it?

Look closely at this animation. It's not deep convection, but you'll see a gray streak of clouds zip out of the central convection towards the Georgia coast, and it coincides with a burst in convective activity.

Wow, pretty neat. No idea but it sure got rid of that in a hurry.

outflow boundaries like that in TC are typical in a drier air environment ... as the mid levels moisten up that will be less likely..

[stormcruisin]

Shugs?

[Aric Dunn]

The system still have nw shear problem not allowing the the convection build deep enough.. along with the dry air... its only going to slowly deepen.. as the trough approaches the flow aloft should change and allow more ventilation and quicker deepening.. right now its still struggling to keep the mid level dry air out..

[Alyono]

from 10:34 AM EDT was that ASCAT

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

0z HWRF is bad news for the OBX http://i.imgur.com/Q2UTz2n.png

First time the HWRF has shown Cat 2 winds so far

95.7kt. Isn't that right at cat3?

Those are winds at 850mb. You have to reduce them by 20% (0.8) to get surface winds. So 96kt at 850mb translates to 77kt at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at a couple different sources .. recon likely going to find a 80mph hurricane...

[txwatcher91]

Radar showing cloud tops over 65k now and CDO expanding on satellite. Showers and bands developing on west side, it is beginning to really intensify.

[meriland23]

looking at a couple different sources .. recon likely going to find a 80mph hurricane...

When does recon go out\come back in with new info next?

[Aric Dunn]

looking at a couple different sources .. recon likely going to find a 80mph hurricane...

When does recon go out\come back in with new info next?

its about to do a sw to ne pass next hour we will have a fix

[meriland23]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

[Aric Dunn]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

very little.. the steering at all levels are pretty straight forward.. only inner core wobbles are to watch out for.. a wobble left 50 miles tonight or tomorrow can translate to landfall or vise versa

[WxEnthus]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

Sometimes weaker storms will be steered by lower-to-mid level conditions and stronger storms will be steered by mid-to-upper level, but it seems atm the atmosphere is fairly uniform in flow, so strength probably won't make much of a difference in that regard.

[meriland23]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

very little.. the steering at all levels are pretty straight forward.. only inner core wobbles are to watch out for.. a wobble left 50 miles tonight or tomorrow can translate to landfall or vise versa

Thanks . I didn't expect this storm to likely skip hop and jump from 70 to 80+ mph within hours. I expected it to hold steady for a good day or so. That only makes me wonder if it could exceed the current predicted landfall intensity. We'll see what the next update says from the NHC.. like many times before, even though something blatantly is stronger, the NHC doesn't like to acknowledge that right away.

[Aric Dunn]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

very little.. the steering at all levels are pretty straight forward.. only inner core wobbles are to watch out for.. a wobble left 50 miles tonight or tomorrow can translate to landfall or vise versa

Thanks . I didn't expect this storm to likely skip hop and jump from 70 to 80+ mph within hours. I expected it to hold steady for a good day or so. That only makes me wonder if it could exceed the current predicted landfall intensity. We'll see what the next update says from the NHC.. like many times before, even though something blatantly is stronger, the NHC doesn't like to acknowledge that right away.

yeah, it has the potential to deepen quickly once the the upper level flow changes more south westerly.. even in the presence the dry air at the mid levels it can over come that given the upper support.. right now both are inhibiting that.. but as the trough approaches it should open up a good outflow channel giving it the opportunity to deepen .. cat 2 maybe even upper cat 2 in the realm of possibility..

[Time_Zone]

Will changes in predicted intensity shift this storms track more left or right?

very little.. the steering at all levels are pretty straight forward.. only inner core wobbles are to watch out for.. a wobble left 50 miles tonight or tomorrow can translate to landfall or vise versa

Thanks . I didn't expect this storm to likely skip hop and jump from 70 to 80+ mph within hours. I expected it to hold steady for a good day or so. That only makes me wonder if it could exceed the current predicted landfall intensity. We'll see what the next update says from the NHC.. like many times before, even though something blatantly is stronger, the NHC doesn't like to acknowledge that right away.

It hasn't. One poster speculated he thinks he may have. Personally. I'm thinking maybe 75 MPH. I see no way it goes above 80 by the time recon is there. Knowing Arthur he could very well still be the same intensity.