ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[ronjon]

experimental FIM 15m - look out south FL

FIM

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like vorticity emerging on the northern coast of Cuba at 96 hrs and becoming stronger. First time we've seen a run take the vorticity north of Cuba...

[Riptide]

12z GFS pulling north of Hispaniola as of hour 90, feeling the weakness it appears. It's just too massive, it is able to capture even the weakest low.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +96

[Alyono]

starting to crank up in the Florida Straits in 120 hours

[Bocadude85]

experimental FIM 15m - look out south FL

FIM

Im right in the bullseye on that run. Im sure it will change 100 more times.

[gatorcane]

Ut oh..hour 129 saved image

[TheStormExpert]

experimental FIM 15m - look out south FL

FIM

Im right in the bullseye on that run. Im sure it will change 100 more times.

How well has the FIM done in the past? I heard it is going to eventually replace the GFS.

[South Texas Storms]

starting to crank up in the Florida Straits in 120 hours

Yeah it looks to be strengthening as a TS near the Florida Keys next Monday night on this run.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +114 First signs of a circulation rather than an open L



12z GFS +126 TS

[wxman57]

144hrs - 50kt TS just SE of Miami moving NW

[South Texas Storms]

It makes landfall as a moderate-strong TS near Miami next Tuesday (150 hours).

[gatorcane]

Check out this excellent upper air pattern as shown by the 12Z GFS at 126 hours. We see a large upper anticyclone sitting on top of the system

[deltadog03]

yea, again, this run is NOT going out to sea. It would have done so if it was. This would likely take a southern FL heading W or WNW with that ridge over top.

[deltadog03]

Gatorcane, if that upper air chart is right, and it should be close, it has all that it needs to get strong very quickly.

[Alyono]

GFS in Miami

[PTrackerLA]

Dang looks like a strong ridge building in to the north of the storm when it is at Miami.

[gatorcane]

GFS in Miami

Nearing the Hurricane center, saved image:

[SouthDadeFish]

If the 12Z GFS upper-air pattern pans out combined with that track, I highly doubt this storm would only be a 50 knot TS after having two days to recover from Hispaniola. Those waters are incredibly warm. Definitely a storm to keep an eye on.

[AdamFirst]

FIM landfalls a cat 1 hurricane at Boca Raton before curving over the state and riding the west coast as a weakening storm. Run reminds me of Jeanne (track, not strength wise)

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