ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanedude]

So may very well still be a ts at 5am?

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure doesn't continue to fall/maintain in a weakening system. What's happening, like Alyono just alluded to, is the wind field is becoming evenly distributed around the core. Once there's a more established eyewall you'll see the winds pick up.

very true.. but with out maintaining deep convection.. we wont see it strengthen much... if the dry air entrainment were to reduce it would quite likely deepen more quickly.. right now it can barely maintain convection at all..

[Cyclenall]

Not a cane... if anything, the winds are weaker this time

My numbers are still safe...for now .

Earth to Kim Cunningham... the pressure is NOT 998mb. The plane had a malfunction

and how is she called a hurricane specialist? a true specialist does not make thee mistakes

Someone make a YouTube complication out of all the clips of this Kim Cunningham please .

[Aric Dunn]

Not a cane... if anything, the winds are weaker this time

My numbers are still safe...for now .

Earth to Kim Cunningham... the pressure is NOT 998mb. The plane had a malfunction

and how is she called a hurricane specialist? a true specialist does not make thee mistakes

Someone make a YouTube complication out of all the clips of this Kim Cunningham please .

I quit watching the weather channel many years ago.. cant remember the last time I even seen it..

[bamajammer4eva]

First strong bands approaching Charleston

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde measures 988mb in the center...no change at all

[hurricanedude]

aric you think it will be a cane at 5am?

[Aric Dunn]

aric you think it will be a cane at 5am?

if it can maintain some sort of convective pattern.. I thought earlier it had .. but collapsed soon after..

[USTropics]

Pressure doesn't continue to fall/maintain in a weakening system. What's happening, like Alyono just alluded to, is the wind field is becoming evenly distributed around the core. Once there's a more established eyewall you'll see the winds pick up.

very true.. but with out maintaining deep convection.. we wont see it strengthen much... if the dry air entrainment were to reduce it would quite likely deepen more quickly.. right now it can barely maintain convection at all..

Yup that's what's been holding this back for the past couple days. Every time it tries to get going, it entrains some more dry air and breaks down somewhat. It seems to wane around this time the past couple of nights and builds up convection in the early morning. Still, better looking then 95% of 2013 . I think someone mentioned this could equate to 1/2 of 2013's ACE earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

alrighty good night all.. .. give it a good 6 to 8 hours... should be in a better environment by then..

[USTropics]

This is one of my favorite satellite loops and really shows the bigger picture of what's going on (it's quite a large loop, may take a few to load but worth it):

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

The brown tinge just to the north of Arthur is dry air, which is slowly being moistened up by Arthur and the approaching trough.

[Hammy]

Back and fourth continues with its radar appearance as it looks like the eye is redeveloping and trying to wrap back around, with more and more banding evident on the western side as well as hints of an eyewall reforming.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[WxEnthus]

This is one of my favorite satellite loops and really shows the bigger picture of what's going on (it's quite a large loop, may take a few to load but worth it):

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

The brown tinge just to the north of Arthur is dry air, which is slowly being moistened up by Arthur and the approaching trough.

Nice. I love water vapor loops, they are somewhat mesmerizing.

[supercane4867]

Large area of 65kt+ flight level winds in the SE quadrant reported by recon. SFMR 63kt with low rain rate

[supercane4867]

NOAA extrap 984.5mb

[supercane4867]

Near 80kt at 750mb level

Time: 08:02:00Z
Coordinates: 30.8333N 78.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 749.9 mb (~ 22.14 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,486 meters (~ 8,156 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: Missing
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 221° at 72 knots (From the SW at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C* (~ 54.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 79 knots (~ 90.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 26 mm/hr (~ 1.02 in/hr)

[Hammy]

Will they be able to make another center fix before 5am?

[bahamaswx]

Still slowly strengthening. Beginning to expand into the NW quad.

Took a nice little NE wobble.

[Hammy]

Looking much better on radar than it did two hours ago as far as the structure, but the satellite shows it's still having a bit of trouble maintaining deep convection. It likely has the dry air mostly worked out at this point though.

[supercane4867]

Drop in eyewall

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (Surface) 175° (from the S) 60 knots (69 mph)
961mb 190° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph)
850mb 205° (from the SSW) 70 knots (81 mph)
697mb 210° (from the SSW) 61 knots (70 mph)