ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Is it my imagination, or has Arthur increased speed quite significantly? Viewing the visible floater, with the forecast points turned on, it appears (to my very untrained eye) that the center of the storm is nearing the 18:00Z forecast point, yet it's only 14:30Z as I write this.

Is Arthur 4 - 5 hours ahead of where he was forecast to be?


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I'm an AMATEUR. Refer to NHC for official info!

[Frank2]

Good radar presentation as of 30 minutes ago, though on satellite the eye is no longer visible...

[ConvergenceZone]

Now I know why the NHC isn't strengthening this above 85 mph, because of the following comment in their last discussion:

"the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the East Coast of North America,"


Regardless, 85 mph is still a decient storm and people need to be on alert...........

it will be quite a bit more intense than 85 mph. May already be

Alyono, if that's the case, in your educated opinion(which I respect big time), why are they keeping it at 85mph when it's such a close potential threat the coast?
Usually the discussion will mention something like, "it could strengthen more significantly than we are showing?".... But they aren't saying any like that, which usually means they are pretty confident.

[TheAustinMan]

Is it my imagination, or has Arthur increased speed quite significantly? Viewing the visible floater, with the forecast points turned on, it appears (to my very untrained eye) that the center of the storm is nearing the 18:00Z forecast point, yet it's only 14:30Z as I write this.

Is Arthur 4 - 5 hours ahead of where he was forecast to be?


--------
I'm an AMATEUR. Refer to NHC for official info!

Hmmm, very very interesting. I'm seeing the same thing too.

[Alyono]

Now I know why the NHC isn't strengthening this above 85 mph, because of the following comment in their last discussion:

"the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the East Coast of North America,"


Regardless, 85 mph is still a decient storm and people need to be on alert...........

it will be quite a bit more intense than 85 mph. May already be

Alyono, if that's the case, in your educated opinion(which I respect big time), why are they keeping it at 85mph when it's such a close potential threat the coast?
Usually the discussion will mention something like, "it could strengthen more significantly than we are showing?".... But they aren't saying any like that, which usually means they are pretty confident.

the 85 mph data is 3 hours old. They wont have recon until after the advisory.

As for their forecast, they are giving far too much weight to the LGE

[Bocadude85]

Arthur is looking good this morning. I do not see anyway that he doesn't make landfall over the OBX. In my opinion the NHC should extend the hurricane warning to the NC/SC border. JMO

[NDG]

it will be quite a bit more intense than 85 mph. May already be

Alyono, if that's the case, in your educated opinion(which I respect big time), why are they keeping it at 85mph when it's such a close potential threat the coast?
Usually the discussion will mention something like, "it could strengthen more significantly than we are showing?".... But they aren't saying any like that, which usually means they are pretty confident.

the 85 mph data is 3 hours old. They wont have recon until after the advisory.

As for their forecast, they are giving far too much weight to the LGE

I'm not even sure if the recon en route will be in time before the next update, must have been running late.

[SunnyThoughts]

Look at all the ligtning...phew, doesn't lightning inside the eyewall/cdo indicate strengthening?

[JtSmarts]

Arthur 90mph 981 at 11:00

11:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3
Location: 32.4°N 78.5°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[TheAustinMan]

Stunning image of Arthur from the International Space Station.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that Arthur becomes a major hurricane?

[TheEuropean]

11am public advisory:

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90
MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

Cat 2 in forcast now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Good Call Alyono. You were 100% correct, at 90 MPH now and forecasting a cat 2...

[TheAustinMan]

Track appears to have shifted west. Don't put too much weight on the centerline though -- storms can deviate.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90kts at peak.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

[Rail Dawg]

That sudden tightening speaks volumes as we know.

I'm going with Cat 3 at the Cape Hatteras lighthouse.

The technology is good but I'm an old timer who used to plot this stuff by hand. Sometimes you just go with the gut.

Don't get me wrong... you guys are goooood!

[NDG]

Like I have been preaching for at least a month now that the subtropics conditions in the Atlantic are way better this year than last year.

[syfr]

Humidity in E Central NC this morning is quite high.

[Bocadude85]

Like I have been preaching for at least a month now that the subtropics conditions in the Atlantic are way better this year than last year.

When is the last time we had a Cat 2 the first week of July? Its been awhile hasn't it?

[NDG]

Pressure is now down to 977 mb