ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1961 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:48 am

That tiny eye only looks to be the start. If conditions remain favorable, that tiny eye could clear out even more and turn into something nasty.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

#1962 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:50 am

Recon aborting normal flight pattern? Heading back toward center for more real time data?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TheStormExpert

#1963 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:50 am

It's funny how Jim Cantore just mentioned how Hurricane Irene(2011) hit Eastern/Outer Banks of NC as a strong Cat.2 Hurricane, when it was only a 85mph Cat.1? Why must the media always overhype and say these things?? :x
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1964 Postby MGC » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:50 am

Arthur has recovered nicely since yesterday evening when dry air eroded the NW eyewall. Better start turning soon or the folks inland might get a surprise visit.....MGC
0 likes   

hurricanekid416
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:43 pm

Re:

#1965 Postby hurricanekid416 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:52 am

TheStormExpert wrote:It's funny how Jim Cantore just mentioned how Hurricane Irene(2011) hit Eastern/Outer Banks of NC as a strong Cat.2 Hurricane, when it was only a 85mph Cat.1? Why must the media always overhype and say these things?? :x

Yea twc likes to do that
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

torrea40

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1966 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:53 am

#Arthur could also be the earliest-known landfalling hurricane in NC. A 1901 hurricane hit on July 11th; Bertha (1996) hit on July 12th.
0 likes   

Rail Dawg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 326
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:02 pm
Location: Where the eye makes landfall.

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1967 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:54 am

sicktght311 wrote:Still here in northern obx in corolla (currituck coubty). No evacuations, stores seem pretty calm, minor gas lines. Seems a lot of People either got out of dodge, or are just sticking with what they've got and riding it out. Thankfully this far north I think barring a large tick west, we should stay out of a lot of he major sustained hurricane force winds, but still no pickle for us. Gonna be a violent evening.

Please keep us posted. Nothing like a direct observation!
0 likes   
Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

#1968 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:55 am

I just watch TWC for the live coverage during the storm.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SeGaBob

#1969 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:56 am

I hope this starts that anticipated turn soon... It looks to be headed straight toward the NC/SC border.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1047
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

#1970 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:58 am

Thought it may just be the storm getting closer to radar, it appears that the eye has wrapped to the south, per a 40 frame radar loop from Wunderground.

Image
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1971 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:59 am

well it sure better start turning more or Wilmington area going to see a landfall ...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

#1972 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:01 am

I don't even see a hint of gradual curve right now. I see straight NNE. MUCH More north than east.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#1973 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:01 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well it sure better start turning more or Wilmington area going to see a landfall ...



12z GFS is showing landfall not to far from Wilmington.
0 likes   

capepoint
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:13 pm
Location: Beaufort, NC

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1974 Postby capepoint » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:02 am

Agreed. It is going to have to make a very sharp turn at this point if it is to remain offshore.
0 likes   
Ginger-(eye),Dennis,Diana,Kate,Gloria,Charley-(eye),Allison,Arthur,Bertha,Fran,Josephine,Bonnie,Earl,Dennis-(twice),Floyd, Isabel-(eye),Charley,Ophelia-(eyewall),Ernesto,Barry,Hanna,Irene-(eye),Arthur-(eye), Florence, Dorian, and countless depressions, storms, and nor'easters.

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1975 Postby Jevo » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:03 am

12z GFS is running and it is sticking to it's guns with a Beaufort initial landfall in 18hours

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#1976 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:03 am

Has the front, or whatever it is that is suppose to help turn the storm more to the East, stalled out..or moving slower than expected? Is that why it hasn't turned as of yet?
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1977 Postby xironman » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:03 am

sicktght311 wrote:Still here in northern obx in corolla (currituck coubty). No evacuations, stores seem pretty calm, minor gas lines. Seems a lot of People either got out of dodge, or are just sticking with what they've got and riding it out. Thankfully this far north I think barring a large tick west, we should stay out of a lot of he major sustained hurricane force winds, but still no pickle for us. Gonna be a violent evening.


Your lucky not to have to deal with Pamlico. The people in Colington may be surprised though, they get a good fetch off Albemarle Sound.
0 likes   

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

#1978 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:05 am

Heck….it is going due NORTH. imo
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1979 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:06 am

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#1980 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:07 am

HurriGuy wrote:Heck….it is going due NORTH. imo



only a little east of north..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests