WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2009's El Nino was weak [Modoki?] at the time and what I actually meant was EXCLUDING typhoons, it would be dry.

Moderate El Nino was well in place by Oct-Nov 2009, and it actually turned Modoki on its secondary peak around Jan 2010... I believe 1991 was moderate EN too.


That's exactly my point though, typhoon-induced rainfall can be used to prepare ourselves for drought. When the typhoon season is over, that's when all our rainfall source gets cut off.

Oh, now I understand. Thanks!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can we talk now about the invest?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC says:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 164.0E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


I don't think this will even intensify beyond a tropical storm that is sheared.

[euro6208]

meanwhile in the south indian ocean....

[stormkite]

Still looks the same on sat-pic dissipated ?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 140331 0000 6.5N 162.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 160.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW 05 TO 10 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1007 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

it's back...

[stormkite]

Yeah Navgem is liking it at 138 hours.



Rossby wave is in the wespac atm the chance's of development are good.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[mrbagyo]

still a disorganized mess but most models are now pointing to a re-curving scenario...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Did it have any improvements in the past 24 hours?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In the last few runs, the models are getting more and more bullish because of the MJO coming and higher sea surface temperatures. GFS is with a "HAIYAN PART 2". ECMWF does not develop this much anymore.

[dexterlabio]

I found Euro's previous forecast of an intense low-latitude typhoon interesting because of the potential westerly wind bursts it could produce, but at the same time I doubted it because intense typhoons below 10N latitude (ex. Mike 1990, Bopha 2012, Louise 1964) usually occur during the year's last quarter. A recurve forecast path in April would be more believable.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I found Euro's previous forecast of an intense low-latitude typhoon interesting because of the potential westerly wind bursts it could produce, but at the same time I doubted it because intense typhoons below 10N latitude (ex. Mike 1990, Bopha 2012, Louise 1964) usually occur during the year's last quarter. A recurve forecast path in April would be more believable.

The STR is prevailing over the Northern Marianas Islands, which means that this may have a Visayas/Mindanao landfall then recurving towards Luzon. Still expecting a recurve but not in the open Pacific Ocean.

[stormkite]

Looking like a possible very intense system on this model.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
160.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 312333Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CHUUK SHOW 05 TO 10 KNOT NORTH-EASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR
1005 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Did it have any improvements in the past 24 hours?

not much but past 48 hours? yes...



vorticity strengthens and more compact...



huge moisture envelope

SST is perfect...

One thing going against it is wind shear and currently stopping development in the near term...

[stormkite]

looking much better on this sat-pic atm microwave shows faint banding.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MJO may favor development with this storm, along with above-average sea surface temperatures over the area. Wind shear is not too high which may also help.

[mrbagyo]

it's just starting to get shape...
here are the 2 ever changing model
ECMWF

GFS

[cycloneye]

Looking much better than 24 hours ago.