ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Well this certainly spawned out of nowhere...

The vorticity needs to strengthen a bit: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[tropicwatch]

New vor map should be out soon. That one is three hours old.

[SFLcane]

Small storm can spin up rather quickly with all that heat content near by and light winds its worth keeping tabs if you live in south florida.

[SFLcane]

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N59W DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN
300NM OF THE LOW FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS NEAR 24N77W TO 29N74W. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A CLOSED LOW MAY
BE DEVELOPING IN THE AREA.

[tolakram]

I would say so.

longer live loop, speed up for best effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=23

[Hammy]

I'm surprised they didn't up the % at 2pm, are they waiting for a bit more persistence of the convection before doing so?

[blp]

CSU updated their HTML5 floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[StormingB81]

After the week we had here of rain...looks like could be quiet a few more days of a lot of rain....Some of those models are interesting how it has it hitting then coming back over......a lot of wait and see

[Kohlecane]

After the week we had here of rain...looks like could be quiet a few more days of a lot of rain....Some of those models are interesting how it has it hitting then coming back over......a lot of wait and see

whats a good link to those models

[StormingB81]

I was just looking at the ones in the Models thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116735&hilit=

[blp]

Great loop from today:

[Sanibel]

West trackers in this area can spin up quickly and become problems, although I don't know if that applies to this system.

[tropicwatch]

Definite increase in vorticity this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

Improved outflow just in last few hours.

[gatorcane]

Whatever LLC may be there seems to be trying to tuck itself under the convection off to the NW. New convection is blowing up to the NW now....interesting situation unfolding to say the least. Perhaps the GEM forecast from yesterday of a strengthening TS into Florida wasn't such a bad call?

[Weatherboy1]

NOW it looks like we have something at the surface here, vs. yesterday where it all looked to be upper level. Not much in the way of convection yet but does appear to be a clear surface low based on cloud appearance/movements (my opinion only, as always)

[Sanibel]

The southern inflow is nothing but a huge gulp of dry air.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have to imagine a Special TWO around 5ish if this persists. Convection bursting at the moment NW of the circulation.

[Nimbus]

Notice how the high cirrus outflow is curling around the system clockwise.
That is a bad sign if you are expecting a sheared tropical system.

[Weatherboy1]

I have to imagine a Special TWO around 5ish if this persists. Convection bursting at the moment NW of the circulation.

I think a lot will depend on how quick the convection fires with this thing. There is now a clear low pressure area forming at the surface, in my opinion, but we don't have vigorous storms associated with it yet. That may not take long to happen though, given the relatively favorable environment. Definitely watching more closely today than yesterday considering it's not far off the FL coast!