EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

From now through late October, this is the most dangerous part of the season.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF rapidly intensifies 97E into a hurricane within 48 hours...

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go again.

And yes, models take this to you guessed it, the Baja California Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

An elongated low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and this disturbance is likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly toward
the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks very good, maybe a little elongated. I would not be surprised at all if this gets declared at 3z.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 97, 2014091600, , BEST, 0, 101N, 977W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 54 61 66 66 64 60 55
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 54 61 66 66 64 60 55
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 50 54 56 57 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 21 17 11 10 10 13 17 18 13 20 18 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 -1 3 2 5 0 0
SHEAR DIR 28 27 29 27 20 25 58 86 64 55 58 85 108
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 158 159 161 159 155 151 150 150 147 142
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 7 10 8 10 7 8 6 6
700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 77 75 76 73 73 69 68 66 62 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 16 18 19 19 18 17
850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 6 1 7 20 36 32 41 62 65 57 56
200 MB DIV 87 102 115 98 121 93 80 52 78 20 42 40 19
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -6 -4 -5 0 0 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 640 583 527 481 445 375 285 255 252 298 338 300 215
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 12 10 10 11 10 8 5 5 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 9 12 13 18 33 42 52 28 21 25 28 21 11

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 160007
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 15/2345Z

C. 10.1N

D. 98.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS NOT WELL DEFINDED AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. DT=1.0
ON JUST OVER 2/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

20140915 2345 10.1 98.4 T1.0/1.0 97E 97E

[TheStormExpert]

Geez! This East Pacific hurricane season is a real power house, producing monster hurricanes left and right! Keeping all my fingers crossed this slides enough left to miss the Baja California Peninsula similar to Norbert.

[hurricanes1234]

No declaration, it seems.

[Socalsgrl]

This is nuts. We are setting records this month!

[supercane4867]

06z Best track up to 35kt

EP, 97, 2014091606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 982W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 40, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[supercane4867]

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to
tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has
also become better organized during the past couple of hours,
and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this
morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests
along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[supercane4867]

Well that escalated real quick

EP, 17, 2014091606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 982W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 40, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED

[jaguarjace]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 98.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POLO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Scatterometer data from earlier this evening indicated that the
circulation of the low pressure area south of Mexico has become
better defined. The ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind vectors
over the southeastern portion of the circulation. In addition, a
ship about 50 n mi south-southeast of the center reported winds to
near 30 kt, which was in good agreement with the ASCAT data.
Based on these data and the increase in organization of the
convection overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Polo. Polo becomes the sixteenth tropical storm in the
eastern Pacific basin this season.

The center of the tropical storm is located near the northeastern
edge of the deep convection due to about 15 to 20 kt of
northeasterly shear. The shear is forecast to decrease somewhat
during the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening. After 72 hours, the global models suggest that
upper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing
shear. As a result, the NHC forecast shows little change in
strength late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little
below the statistical guidance and is close to the intensity
consensus, ICON.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/8 kt. Polo is
forecast to turn northwestward today and continue in that
general direction during the next couple days while it moves around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Although the global models generally agree on this
scenario, there are differences in how close Polo moves to the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The ECMWF takes
Polo inland while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps the
tropical storm offshore. The NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope during the first 2 to 3 days. After that
time, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone
west-northwestward. Confidence in the track forecast, especially
late in the forecast period, is lower than normal.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Polo. A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 11.9N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 12.8N 99.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[hurricanes1234]

Knowing this season, I won't be surprised if this makes it to hurricane strength. The people in its path should be preparing from now.

[Yellow Evan]

Knowing this season, here is what will end up happening.

After 72 hours, the global models suggest that
upper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing
shear.

Won't happen, allowing for further intensification.

After that
time, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone
west-northwestward.

Won't happen. It'll find a way to punch through the ridge and all the guidance will shift east as it deepens.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 17, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 120N, 988W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 40, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, M,

[Roxy]

Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!