WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Saved loop. Looks like is organizing fast and it may be named as Vongfong very soon.

[cycloneye]

First warning by JMA.

TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 3 October 2014
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°55'(7.9°)
E159°40'(159.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E156°30'(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

0300z warning. Forecast to become a Typhoon near Saipan.


WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 159.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 159.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.0N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 10.2N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 11.6N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 12.8N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.6N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 159.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm 19W...

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A
022257Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND MORE WELL
DEFINED DEEP CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LEVEL OF CONSOLIDATION THE SYSTEM HAS
EXHIBITED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON
STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
AND GOOD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TS 19W TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTH TO REACH ITS PEAK, DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, OF 90 KNOTS
AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO
18W, EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS OVERALL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE
ABSORPTION OF SOME OF THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BY THE PREVIOUS STORM
TRACK. THROUGH THE LATER FORECAST TAUS, THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN
THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK AND WHERE, AND EVEN IF, TS 19W WILL RECURVE INTO A
BREAK IN THE STR. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE AND POOR CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATER FORECAST TIMES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL SITUATION WITH
19W...BUT NOW THAT JTWC HAS STARTING ISSUING FORECASTS...I HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HAVE BEEFED UP THE WEATHER WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MON-TUE. OF COURSE...WINDS AND SEAS COULD
BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT UNTIL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED THIS IS AS SPECIFIC AS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR NOW...
SINCE THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY TROPICAL STORM/TYPHOON CONDITIONS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CERTAINLY
KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTION IF WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 8:30:36 N Lon : 158:37:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1006.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -22.2C Cloud Region Temp : -46.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.8 degrees

[mrbagyo]

TS 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 3 October 2014

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°55'(8.9°)
E157°35'(157.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E156°10'(156.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°)
E154°05'(154.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning:




WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO
THE SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 030916Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER,
ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 145-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. TS 19W SHOULD INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 60 TO 70
KNOTS AS IT TRANSITS THE GUAM AREA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A
365-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. THE CHALLENGE IN THE
LATER TAUS IS THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ALLOW 19W TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD. UKMO, ECMWF
AND COAMPS-TC, HOWEVER, SHOW A FLATTER TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. UKMO
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 120. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE LIKE TY 18W OR STAIR-
STEP ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 120. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IF IT TRACKS
OVER COOLER, UPWELLED WATER RESULTING FROM TY 18W. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//

[RaijinWeather]

Its going to be a another NE recurve typhoon like Phanfone but recurve liitle north and hence Okinawa and Kagoshima, Miyazaki, Kochi, Nagasaki, Saga and Fukuoka is expected to get the most

[cycloneye]

Vongfong continues to become better organized and is possible that it becomes a Typhoon before it moves thru the Mariana islands.

[euro6208]

Monster in the making...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 45kts.

19W VONGFONG 141003 1800 9.1N 156.3E WPAC 45 989

[cycloneye]

TPPN10 PGTW 031811

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 9.0N

D. 156.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.
(+0.5 TNO CHANGE IN 6HRS.)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1459Z 9.2N 157.4E ATMS
03/1508Z 9.2N 156.6E AMS2
03/1549Z 9.3N 156.6E MMHS


BERMEA

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning graphic.Is forecast now to become a Typhoon before it moves thru the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Closeup of potential Category 2 typhoon track and large TS force winds in pink...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
031549Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND CONSOLIDATION.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 90-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER THE MARIANAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 19W TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
C. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 19W TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH ABOUT 370
NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-
TERM INTENSITY AND LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 032144
TCSWNP

A. 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 03/2101Z

C. 9.7N

D. 155.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPING STEADILY WITH SOME INDICATION OF EYE
FORMATION IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND POSSIBLY IN THE 2101Z EIR IMAGE. DT OF
3.5 IS BASED ON 9/10 BANDING. MET IS 3.5 AND PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/1549Z 9.3N 156.6E AMSU


...VELASCO

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2014 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 9:15:05 N Lon : 155:20:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.2mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.7

Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 42km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.2 degrees

[euro6208]

Impressive...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 032136
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192014
800 AM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG STRENGTHENING IN NORTHERN POHNPEI STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AS WELL AS THE MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...9.4N 155.8E

ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.8 DEGREES EAST.

VONGFONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
VONGFONG TO THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. VONGFONG IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

STANKO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 032211
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
811 AM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG STRENGTHENING IN NORTHERN POHNPEI
STATE...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.4N...LONGITUDE 155.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT 785 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND ROTA...ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TINIAN AND 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT MORE COMPREHENSIVE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS
AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE AREA.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040615-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.A.0001.141003T2211Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
811 AM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014

...TYPHOON WATCH IN EFFECT...

$$

[euro6208]