ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#2061 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:43 pm

ravyrn wrote:
Alyono wrote:I'd like to know where the 90 mph winds are. Seeing nothing justifying anything above 85 mph


Yeah I'm not seeing it in the recon data. The highest I've seen is 71 knots in the SE quad.



84kt fl that 96 mph
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Re: Re:

#2062 Postby xironman » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:44 pm

ravyrn wrote:
Alyono wrote:I'd like to know where the 90 mph winds are. Seeing nothing justifying anything above 85 mph


Yeah I'm not seeing it in the recon data. The highest I've seen is 71 knots in the SE quad.


The wind field has expanded a bit so it will probably be less intense for a while.
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#2063 Postby hurricanekid416 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:45 pm

Even though winds are likely not 90 MPH I doubt the nhc would decrease it in the advisory
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Re: Re:

#2064 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ravyrn wrote:
Alyono wrote:I'd like to know where the 90 mph winds are. Seeing nothing justifying anything above 85 mph


Yeah I'm not seeing it in the recon data. The highest I've seen is 71 knots in the SE quad.



84kt fl that 96 mph


*I haven't seen any SFMR winds over 71 knots. You don't use flight level to base a storm's intensity?
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#2065 Postby AEWspotter » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:46 pm

3 passes of the center and recon hasn't found an SFMR reading above 71kts. NHC might keep this at 80kts, but they would also be justified in knocking down the current intensity to 75kts.

Did the dry air that Arthur ingested interrupt the intensifying trend?
Last edited by AEWspotter on Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2066 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:46 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:Even though winds are likely not 90 MPH I doubt the nhc would decrease it in the advisory



they have not sampled everything yet.. and it did just ingest some dry air temporary though,
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Re:

#2067 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:47 pm

AEWspotter wrote:3 passes of the center and recon hasn't found an SFMR reading above 71kts. NHC might keep this at 80kts, but they would also be justified in knocking down the current intensity to 75kts.

Did the dry air that Arthur ingested interrupt the intensifying trend?


yeah thinking that the dry air did..
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#2068 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:48 pm

Almost clear.

Image
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2069 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:48 pm

4.2 km WRF ARW forecast of Hurricane #Arthur moving just west of NC Outer Banks w/80-90 knot winds (Cat 2)
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#2070 Postby AEWspotter » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:49 pm

Let me add that I think it would be a terrible idea to lower the intensity. This system might have weakened in the very short-term, but the high SSTs and low shear should bring the max intensity to somewhere near 85kts.
Last edited by AEWspotter on Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2071 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:49 pm

a dropsonde did find 100 KT at 970mb in the eyewall. Wont take much to get these strong winds mixing down
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Re: Re:

#2072 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AEWspotter wrote:3 passes of the center and recon hasn't found an SFMR reading above 71kts. NHC might keep this at 80kts, but they would also be justified in knocking down the current intensity to 75kts.

Did the dry air that Arthur ingested interrupt the intensifying trend?


yeah thinking that the dry air did..



Im going to use the theory that it is July 3rd SSTs and not Sept 3rd....Hurricane season dont usually get nasty till mid Aug in the Atlantic.
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Re:

#2073 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 pm

AEWspotter wrote:Let me add that I think it would be a terrible idea to lower the intensity. This system might have weakened in the very short-term, but the high SSTs and low shear should bring the max intensity to somewhere near 85kts.


yeah appears to be contracting a little bit the last hour.. not likely to stay in a steady state.. like you mentioned the environment is conducive for strengthening.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2074 Postby ncbird » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 pm

And so we start. Hot and muggy. Not looking forward to loosing electric later. All my NC friends out there stay safe.
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Re: Re:

#2075 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:....Hurricane season dont usually get nasty till mid Aug in the Atlantic.


Arthur didn't get that memo! lol
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Re:

#2076 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 pm

AEWspotter wrote:Let me add that I think it would be a terrible idea to lower the intensity. This system might have weakened in the very short-term, but the high SSTs and low shear should bring the max intensity to somewhere near 85kts.


Agree.It would give the impression to the public in the areas of the warnings that is weakening and nothing too bad will occur.
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Re: Re:

#2077 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
AEWspotter wrote:3 passes of the center and recon hasn't found an SFMR reading above 71kts. NHC might keep this at 80kts, but they would also be justified in knocking down the current intensity to 75kts.

Did the dry air that Arthur ingested interrupt the intensifying trend?


yeah thinking that the dry air did..



Im going to use the theory that it is July 3rd SSTs and not Sept 3rd....Hurricane season dont usually get nasty till mid Aug in the Atlantic.


Current SST's along the SE US Atlantic coast are more than warm enough and have been running above average, current SSTs if anything is helping Arthur.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2078 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:53 pm

ncbird wrote:And so we start. Hot and muggy. Not looking forward to loosing electric later. All my NC friends out there stay safe.



Hi Bird!!! :lol:
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Re: Re:

#2079 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:53 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
AEWspotter wrote:3 passes of the center and recon hasn't found an SFMR reading above 71kts. NHC might keep this at 80kts, but they would also be justified in knocking down the current intensity to 75kts.

Did the dry air that Arthur ingested interrupt the intensifying trend?


yeah thinking that the dry air did..



Im going to use the theory that it is July 3rd SSTs and not Sept 3rd....Hurricane season dont usually get nasty till mid Aug in the Atlantic.



SSTs are currently above average. they are closer to mid August temps if I am not mistaken.
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Re:

#2080 Postby tallywx » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:55 pm

Alyono wrote:a dropsonde did find 100 KT at 970mb in the eyewall. Wont take much to get these strong winds mixing down


Right - any increase in deeper convection around the eye would mix those screaming winds back down towards the surface.
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