EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

How does this RI'ing impact the longer-term setup, could it allow for Norbert to last farther north?

[Yellow Evan]

How does this RI'ing impact the longer-term setup, could it allow for Norbert to last farther north?

Not significantly IMO.

[supercane4867]

Racing against time...sharp SST gradient ahead

[Yellow Evan]

Racing against time...sharp SST gradient ahead

http://i.imgur.com/MlfC8c3.jpg

Probs has 6-12 hours left.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd go 100kt based on T5.5/102kt from SAB and TAFB. The UW-CIMSS ADT CI# is too low for rapidly intensifying storms, but I'm not sure the eye is clear enough for a T6.0/115kt like what the Raw T# currently is.

[Ntxw]

This basin will not quit. I'd almost call this a MH, but would like to see the eye cleared.

[CrazyC83]

That point to the northwest at the top of the screen is near 30N latitude, correct?

[supercane4867]

I'd go 100kt based on T5.5/102kt from SAB and TAFB. The UW-CIMSS ADT CI# is too low for rapidly intensifying storms, but I'm not sure the eye is clear enough for a T6.0/115kt like what the Raw T# currently is.

And ADT is struggling to get the center position right

[Yellow Evan]

That point to the northwest at the top of the screen is near 30N latitude, correct?

Yes. May be a record for highest latitude major.

[CaliforniaResident]

The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!

[Yellow Evan]

The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!

Nope, the white thing on the NHC means a remnant low actually.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 23:54:10 N Lon : 112:33:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees

[Kingarabian]

I think it could hold its own over 25-26C for a short while.... and not degenerate completely. EPAC basin crossers usually survive these types of waters until shear kicks in.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CaliforniaResident]

The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!

Nope, the white thing on the NHC means a remnant low actually.

Whatever it is, it looks like it has a good chance of getting the Southern California coast some much needed rain! Maybe 1-2 inches in downtown San Diego which is very rare in a single system even during the winter months (where we get 90 percent of our rain), let alone in a month where zero rain is the norm (the median rainfall in all months from May through September is zero).

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 23:54:10 N Lon : 112:33:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If only it could wobble north, where the warmest waters so far it could reach, then it would explode.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it could hold its own over 25-26C for a short while.... and not degenerate completely. EPAC basin crossers usually survive these types of waters until shear kicks in.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's small, so it can't hold on as easily. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... wg9shr.GIF Shear could drop a little more though, but by tomorrow, epic dry air should take over.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO the estimate of the NHC is quite conservative. It has organized even more, looking like 105-115 kts. Time may run out for intensification, but this would be a category 3 already, making it possibly 7th.

[Yellow Evan]

IMO the estimate of the NHC is quite conservative. It has organized even more, looking like 105-115 kts. Time may run out for intensification, but this would be a category 3 already, making it possibly 7th.

Well, the eye is not all that warm yet.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 23:59:33 N Lon : 112:40:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.9 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -53.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees