ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Time to focus on Gonzalo. Not what someone said yesterday or what happened two months ago.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Time to focus on Gonzalo. Not what someone said yesterday or what happened two months ago.

Speaking of him is that an eye I spy with my eyes?

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[NDG]

Radar from Martinique agrees with microwave data of a very well defined LLC with a small eye like feature, very tight LLC at least.

Radar shows that it is moving almost due west.

[Hammy]

I'm noticing the people that said this wouldn't form 24 hours ago have nothing to say... Look at pages 3 and 4.

Nothing to be gained from that, it happens both ways on all possibles. Ram Dass said it best, Be Here Now.

True, I just felt the need to say it though because some think they know it all. In no way do I mean to seem rude but it just eats me up sometimes. I don't mean to get off topic though... this storm looks really good to me. I don't want this to be a hurricane in PR and surrounding areas.

I personally got too hung up on land interaction, but in the end it seems like the Euro was just up to its old game with the mid-range. At the moment it looks like it's headed into some very weak westerly shear (watch the high clouds over Antigua are from the south then very weakly out of the west.) Hopefully this combined with dry air could slow intensification until after it passes the islands, but this may also be a very temporary trend, and if convection explodes overnight it could also reestablish western outflow.

edit: Checked radar, seems to be a weak western eyewall, but it could be midlevel and the actual center could be just under or to the west of that 'eyewall'. And it may end up being quite stronger than expected when the plane gets there in the morning.

[abajan]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

That's an additional 2 MB drop in just 3 hours.

[Incoming!]

Closest point of approach to St Croix...5.7 miles. It looks like I'll have my hands full in the morning. This one snuck up on me.

[NDG]

Nothing to be gained from that, it happens both ways on all possibles. Ram Dass said it best, Be Here Now.

True, I just felt the need to say it though because some think they know it all. In no way do I mean to seem rude but it just eats me up sometimes. I don't mean to get off topic though... this storm looks really good to me. I don't want this to be a hurricane in PR and surrounding areas.

I personally got too hung up on land interaction, but in the end it seems like the Euro was just up to its old game with the mid-range. At the moment it looks like it's headed into some very weak westerly shear (watch the high clouds over Antigua are from the south then very weakly out of the west.) Hopefully this combined with dry air could slow intensification until after it passes the islands, but this may also be a very temporary trend, and if convection explodes overnight it could also reestablish western outflow.

18z SHIPS forecasts shear to stay around 10 knots if not lower at least over the next 48 hrs, and most importantly & most damaging mid level shear is non-existent around this system.

[Gustywind]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

That's an additional 2 MB drop in just 3 hours.

Very very impressive drop since 130 PM... that means 7 mb in less than 7 hours

[NDG]

Radar view from Martinique, I placed the X over the LLC.

[SouthDadeFish]

Excellent inner structure for a weak TS. With a deep convective burst tonight, this thing could take off.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Excellent inner structure for a weak TS. With a deep convective burst tonight, this thing could take off.

In my opinion this thing is close to hurricane strength already but I could be wrong.

[RL3AO]

Excellent inner structure for a weak TS. With a deep convective burst tonight, this thing could take off.

In my opinion this thing is close to hurricane strength already but I could be wrong.

Theres not any evidence of that IMO. However, like SDF said, the structure is very impressive.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Excellent inner structure for a weak TS. With a deep convective burst tonight, this thing could take off.

In my opinion this thing is close to hurricane strength already but I could be wrong.

Theres not any evidence of that IMO. However, like SDF said, the structure is very impressive.

Did the plane ever fly into the storm?

[NDG]

No increase on its T numbers at 0z.

12/2345 UTC 16.5N 59.3W T2.0/2.0 GONZALO

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 59.7W 1002 DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

[RL3AO]

Did the plane ever fly into the storm?

Yes. NHC got data from the entire flight. They just had issues getting the data to the public.

[NDG]

Very small & tight eyelike feature still very evident on radar:

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Very small & tight eyelike feature still very evident on radar:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_ant.html
You can see it here last few frames good.

[ozonepete]

No increase on its T numbers at 0z.

12/2345 UTC 16.5N 59.3W T2.0/2.0 GONZALO

Yeah, I'm guessing because even though the symmetry is quite good the convection is ragged right now. And I suspect that's because there's enough dry getting ingested to prevent a really large uniform CDO. If that happens this will surely bomb out. Let's hope not.