ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ravyrn]

000
URNT12 KNHC 032055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/20:24:40Z
B. 33 deg 19 min N
078 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2891 m
D. 68 kt
E. 125 deg 17 nm
F. 217 deg 80 kt
G. 126 deg 19 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 13 C / 3045 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 23
MAX FL WIND 82 KT 129 / 11 NM 18:35:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 05 KT

[Macrocane]

Recon can't lie, but satellite appearence is deceiving and it looks like a 90-95 kt hurricane.
I just hope people take this seriously and don't underestiamte it beacuse is "just a cat 1".

[ravyrn]

NHC goes with a min pressure of 979 as well...I thought there were readings quite a bit lower?

NOAA3 found pressure of 974mb but the latest VDM says 977mb.

[Hammy]

It may be a typo because the forecast advisory says 977.

[tropicwatch]

they kept it 979... odd

They have done that a couple of times it seems. Don't know why.

[SunnyThoughts]

NHC goes with a min pressure of 979 as well...I thought there were readings quite a bit lower?

NOAA3 found pressure of 974mb but the latest VDM says 977mb.

NOAA flies at a higher altitude, so their reading are different.

[brunota2003]

From the forecast discussion:

"NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7
pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued
on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position
updates."

[capepoint]

Frying pan shoals light....yes its a lighthouse

I cant and report from it..

It's a decommissioned Light platform SE of the tip of Cape Fear shoals. It is privately owned now (as a bed and breakfast lol) and I don't think the weather instrumentation is still operational. They moved it to a bouy a few miles away a few years ago. If you look at the national data buoy site you will find it listed as Frying Pan. I know NWS MHX has a link to that site on their website.

Also, another buoy operated by National Marine Sciences called Onslow Bay will be interesting to watch later. It is located off of New River Inlet, or Jacksonville NC.

[Nimbus]

Its going to be close, maybe the outer banks will get spared those "winds out of the southwest".

[NDG]

Why are they keeping pressures at 979mb? It should had been at least 977mb.

[JtSmarts]

People out swimming at Wrightsville Beach on wtvd.

[capepoint]

Aric, you are one of the guys I respect the most on here, what is your current thinking for the Cape Lookout area. I am in Morehead City.

[ravyrn]

AF301 is returning to base but here's an image of their data.

[Aric Dunn]

Frying pan shoals light....yes its a lighthouse

I cant and report from it..

It's a decommissioned Light platform SE of the tip of Cape Fear shoals. It is privately owned now (as a bed and breakfast lol) and I don't think the weather instrumentation is still operational. They moved it to a bouy a few miles away a few years ago. If you look at the national data buoy site you will find it listed as Frying Pan. I know NWS MHX has a link to that site on their website.

Also, another buoy operated by National Marine Sciences called Onslow Bay will be interesting to watch later. It is located off of New River Inlet, or Jacksonville NC.

I got all the ..someone said reported a gust to 85mph or something bur thr buoy itself is nor reporting.. oh well

[supercane4867]

NHC goes with a min pressure of 979 as well...I thought there were readings quite a bit lower?

NOAA3 found pressure of 974mb but the latest VDM says 977mb.

NOAA flies at a higher altitude, so their reading are different.

They actually fly at an altitude much lower than AF this time

[Aric Dunn]

anyway its never going to strengthen much if it cant keep a closed eyewall with deep convection around it..

[SeGaBob]

The NHC track now has it making landfall between Morehead City and Beaufort...

[brunota2003]

Here is a good map with the forecast track and buoys that will likely be impacted (including some that, if the track holds, will be darn near run over!)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/?lat=35.721551 ... =&ls=false

[znel52]

Here is a good map with the forecast track and buoys that will likely be impacted (including some that, if the track holds, will be darn near run over!)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/?lat=35.721551 ... =&ls=false

Yep I live in Atlantic in Carteret County. Looks like it is gonna come right over us.

[SunnyThoughts]

Here is a good map with the forecast track and buoys that will likely be impacted (including some that, if the track holds, will be darn near run over!)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/?lat=35.721551 ... =&ls=false

Yep I live in Atlantic in Carteret County. Looks like it is gonna come right over us.

Stay Safe...fill up a few empty containers with water and put in the freezer...will keep freezer colder longer should you lose power.