WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Passing very close to Ngulu where winds are 85-95 mph!

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 031118
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON HAGUPIT LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST WED DEC 3 2014

...TYPHOON HAGUPIT GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM NGULU IN YAP STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ULITHI...NGULU...YAP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP
STATE AND FOR PEOPLE ON KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE AND KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU IS CANCELLED

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF MAJOR TYPHOON HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAJOR TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 115 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS BECOME A MAJOR TYPHOON AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. ITS CENTER HAS PASSED
JUST NORTH OF NGULU IN YAP STATE IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL PASS
NORTH OF KAYANGEL AND KOROR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

...ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WELL
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER REMAIN IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AWAY FROM SHORELINES
UNTIL STRONG WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR SUNRISE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY SUNRISE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

...NGULU...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS PASSED JUST NORTH OF NGULU IN THE
PAST HOUR. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES WITH
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 85
TO 95 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH BEFORE DAWN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AFTER
SUNRISE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 18 TO 22 FEET WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF OF 19
TO 24 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THE NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

...YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF YAP IN THE
PAST HOUR. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES WITH
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 35 TO
55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH BEFORE DAWN. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BY SUNRISE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 14 TO 18 FEET WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF OF 13
TO 20 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND IN
POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...KAYANGEL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF KAYANGEL
BY AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE TO LAST IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF OF 11
TO 16 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND IN POOR-
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...KOROR...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
KOROR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM SHORELINES WITH ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF OF 9 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INUNDATION OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND IN POOR-
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

2014DEC03 103200 4.6 976.5 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.9 MW ON OFF OFF -26.51 -79.98 EYE/P -99 IR 34.3 8.73 -136.95 SPRL MTSAT2 13.9

RAW skyrockets to 6.9!

[wxman57]

the parallel GFS seems to be down atm..but the 06z operational run basically the same as previous...

I heard (Ryan Maue) that the parallel GFS run will not be run any more after last evening. He thinks it may be 45-60 days away from going operational. I'd heard December 17th as an operational date, but perhaps that changed.

JTWC is still following the GFS and keeping Hagupit east of the Philippines through 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop.

[dexterlabio]

^attempting to open her eye

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Scary turn to the south of west because it hits us after moving WNW

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 3 December 2014

<Analyses at 03/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°30'(8.5°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 04/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E121°30'(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM)

[euro6208]

looks like a much larger eye about to open and devour the much smaller like pinhole eye...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

22W HAGUPIT 141203 1200 8.7N 136.8E WPAC 100 948

[dexterlabio]

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=10m&tz=AEDT&area=Ph&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

dexterlabio here is the Bom's run has the system east and clearly under the influence of the trough.

hmmm looks like the trough reaches the storm at such low latitude (10N). so far the GFS model has the most realistic recurve scenario among the models. right now though we also have to consider the storm's movement itself. Any deviation would cause changes in models simulation, it's like the movement of the storm dictating what the models will show...

[wxman57]

I can see what looks like the start of an eyewall replacement cycle on that satellite loop above. Toward the end of the loop you can see a "moat" forming around the eye. This would indicate near-term weakening (next 6 hrs or so) prior to an intensification phase.

[talkon]

Looks like JTWC is now forecasting a recurve

While JMA is still forecasting landfall.


edited to add JMA forecast

[ManilaTC]

Eye is now visible on some of the IR enhancements... and quite huge.

[somethingfunny]

3 days out from a potential landfall and we still have this sort of model and agency spread

[Alyono]

this is NOT going to recurve. Nothing synoptically indicates that

[dexterlabio]

this is NOT going to recurve. Nothing synoptically indicates that

but the deepening trough does exist up north, doesn't it? They are considering that to be a possible game changer...

[ManilaTC]

this is NOT going to recurve. Nothing synoptically indicates that

I definitely agree on this, the streamline analysis show a solid siberian low behind the North Pac high. and no diving trough.
The STR is very zonal though, very solid.

[dexterlabio]

this is getting crazy. maybe tomorrow we can all agree on a unified general track. The only good news right now is that it isn't bombing out this far like Haiyan did.

[euro6208]

Passing between the main islands of Yap and Palau...Pink circles is where tropical storm force winds are occuring where Yap is...

[dexterlabio]

uh-oh

2014DEC03 140100 5.0 958.6 +4.6 90.0 5.0 6.2 7.1 1.7T/6hr

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ALSO SEEN IN A
031225Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE TYPHOON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS JAPAN
AND SLIGHTLY RE-ORIENTS THE STR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 22W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE NORTHEAST SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AND
LIMIT TY 22W FROM GAINING LATITUDE. THIS WILL DRIVE TY 22W ON AN
OVERALL SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT WHILE INCREASING VWS FURTHER WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF MIGRATORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS
PASSING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA WILL MODIFY THE DOMINANT STEERING
STR CAUSING TY 22W TO SLOWLY SHIFT POLEWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 AND WIDELY SPREAD
AFTER TAU 48. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHARP POLEWARD TURN WHILE GFDN, NVGM AND JENS TAKE THE SYSTEM
ON A GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS
AND STORM MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN