ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

In addition to the NC record, and earliest Cat 2 since 2008, I believe this is also the strongest hurricane to hit the US East Coast since Jeanne in 2004.

Hurricane Wilma hit SE Florida as a 105mph hurricane in October 2005

True, albeit from the back door!

[cfltrib]

Just a reminder to novices on the forum:
The faster the forward speed, the high wind speeds will be on the east side (or right side perpendicular) of the storm, and the opposite side will have lesser winds. Example:
At 18 mph forward speed, the east side will have top sustained wind speed around the eye wall PLUS 18 mph. That is currently 100-105 mph, with eyewall winds of 82-87 mph. The west side of the storm will have top sustained winds that are 18 mph less than the eye wall wind speed, which is only 64-69 mph.

In 2004, when Charlie passed over central Florida, it was clipping along at 34 mph. damage on the east side of the storm was extensive with winds near the center at 105-110 mph. Just 1 mile west of the eyewall, top winds were less than 50 mph - including gusts. Sustained winds were only 40 mph. This is what is meant when someone mentions the "strong" side of the storm.

[TheStormExpert]

In addition to the NC record, and earliest Cat 2 since 2008, I believe this is also the strongest hurricane to hit the US East Coast since Jeanne in 2004.

Hurricane Wilma hit SE Florida as a 105mph hurricane in October 2005

Hurricane Wilma made landfall on the SW Coast of Florida. Hammy is talking about East Coast landfalls.

[ozonepete]

So, I know there is a lot going on right now with the storm coming into the Outer banks, but I wanted to apologize. After the storm passed my location, I went and took a long overdue nap (i.e. drunkenly passed out), and when i woke, I knew I had made a stupid comment earlier. I know that there is no conspiracy in the NHC to withhold forecasts or warnings, or anything else. I shamed myself, and I apologize to the community.

Now back to the storm.

Don't worry about it. We've all said something here to be red-faced about. You are a valuable asset to storm2k and so ok let's get back to the storm.

[Andrew92]

In terms of wind, this is indeed the strongest since Jeanne. But in terms of pressure, this still doesn't hold a candle to Sandy, and also isn't as deep as Irene.

I'm not trying to disrespect Arthur when I say that, as the damage could still be tremendous along the Outer Banks. I'm just saying, although the windiest storm in ten years, not the lowest pressure. Good luck to all those enduring this storm, and those yet to face it.

-Andrew92

Just remember the last Cat.2 to hit the U.S. was Ike and we all know what happened with that. Strength does not always matter when it comes to hurricanes, they all can and will produce some sort of damage at least.

Right, I'm well aware. In fact, that was kind of my point, that the wind speed doesn't always dictate the kind of damage the storm will produce. We will just have to see what happens as Arthur passes through the Outer Banks to see just what takes place, as well as what happens in New England and the Canadian Maritimes.

Stay safe everyone in Arthur's path.

-Andrew92

[dexterlabio]

Do we expect Arthur to affect NY area as well?

[znel52]

Was pretty much dead center in the eye about 15 min ago. Pressure bottomed out at 976mb.

[CrazyC83]

Was dead center in the eye about 15 min ago. Pressure bottomed out at 976mb.

Was it perfectly calm or was there a breeze still?

[dexterlabio]

Sandy could've been the most intense hurricane to hit the mainland US since Ike (in terms of central pressure) but it wasn't officially a tropical system when it hit NJ. So Arthur takes the cake..

[HurriGuy]

Recon almost back to south side. Already 70 mph surface winds.

[CrazyC83]

Small, strengthening storms tend to bring wind to the surface better than their intensity suggests. Recent examples include Tomas 2010 (St. Lucia), Ernesto 2012 (Mexico), Humberto 2007, Katrina 2005 (Florida) and Juan 2003.

[supercane4867]

Recent VDM says Arthur has not weakened

000
URNT12 KNHC 040416 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 04/03:18:30Z
B. 34 deg 40 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2898 m
D. 83 kt
E. 135 deg 17 nm
F. 227 deg 90 kt
G. 133 deg 18 nm
H. EXTRAP 979 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 12 C / 3049 m
K. -2 C / NA
L. NA
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1401A ARTHUR OB 14 CCB
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 133 / 18 NM 03:12:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;

[znel52]

Was dead center in the eye about 15 min ago. Pressure bottomed out at 976mb.

Was it perfectly calm or was there a breeze still?

Dead calm, i was gonna post a radar screenshot showing my location but it's a pain in the butt on this phone.

[72Packer]

The guy on TWC does not know the difference between Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island, and Portsmouth Island. BAD REPORTING!

[capepoint]

The guy on TWC does not know the difference between Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island, and Portsmouth Island. BAD REPORTING!

the difference is about 20 miles.........lol

[NDG]

Unflagged 89 knot surface wind by recon.

042200 3439N 07630W 6966 03015 9939 +066 -062 281074 076 089 015 00

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Arthur intensified nicely over the past 24-48hrs and it should be a rough night for NC. I hope everyone was prepared!

My analysis for Hurricane Arthur and other basins:http://goo.gl/WxWJx7

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[weathernerdguy]

Unflagged 89 knot surface wind by recon.

042200 3439N 07630W 6966 03015 9939 +066 -062 281074 076 089 015 00

What's 89 knots again?

[SouthDadeFish]

Those high SFMR readings are questionable in these shallow waters... What I am impressed with is the extrapolated 976 mb reading in 40+ knots of wind... Perhaps still deepening?

[HurriGuy]

Unflagged 89 knot surface wind by recon.

042200 3439N 07630W 6966 03015 9939 +066 -062 281074 076 089 015 00

What's 89 knots again?

Approx right above 100 mph