ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Light wind from the west. System has pulled clear dry air over us which can't be conducive to development.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying towards 91L. Check the 91L Recon Thread

[TheStormExpert]

Jupiter Inlet:
http://www.evsjupiter.com/main.htm
Palm Beach/Lake Worth Inlet:
http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/lakeworthinlet/
Hobe Sound, Martin County:
http://www.evsmartin.com/hsnwr/
Bathtub Beach, Martin County:
http://www.evsmartin.com/bathtub/
Sebastian Inlet:
http://www.sebastianinletcam.com

[robbielyn]

Convection appears to be increasing ever so slightly in general but not around the center. It has started to look a bit better to me in the last few frames of the visible satellite though.

Its definately wrapping and slowly getting a northerly component to it. convection is wrapping around the center.

[robbielyn]

Light wind from the west. System has pulled clear dry air over us which can't be conducive to development.

It's starting to develop and wrap as we speak. This will get going sooner rather than later.

[Hurricaneman]

Im thinking TS Arthur sometime today based on organizational trends especially if the convection continues to increase around the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Convection is on the increase in the SE quadrant and reds showing up on IR unlike yesterday. I think it is just a matter of time now folks and Arthur will be borne from 91L.

[Ikester]

Im thinking TS Arthur sometime today based on organizational trends especially if the convection continues to increase around the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It takes more than just a few more thunderstorms to classify this as a tropical storm. It seems everybody is wrapped up with presentation. The key here is a 1 min. sustained wind of 39 mph or more. More times than not it seems like these things are classified because a gust hits 30 or 35 mph.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

If anyone wants to view a nice high def 30 frame animation of 91L. Speed it up for better effect.

[robbielyn]

Im thinking TS Arthur sometime today based on organizational trends especially if the convection continues to increase around the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It takes more than just a few more thunderstorms to classify this as a tropical storm. It seems everybody is wrapped up with presentation. The key here is a 1 min. sustained wind of 39 mph or more. More times than not it seems like these things are classified because a gust hits 30 or 35 mph.

Agreed however, there is some organization as it has pulled south of the northerly dry air. It is wrapping around the center. So maybe not form a ts today but it looks like its beginning to start to get its act together. In other words, there's hope.

[wxman57]

Strongest winds I'm seeing in reports around the center are 15 kts, though there may be some 20 or even 25 kt winds SE of the center. Getting some convection over the center now. If that holds, then we may have TD One today, but not "Arthur".

[OuterBanker]

This thing has the potential for disaster. What could be a real concern for the Outer Banks. In a couple days as this heads north it will be heading to near ideal conditions. Warm water, great ventilation, low shear. Euro has been consistent for a week. They now have a storm approaching cat 2 strength with a direct hit. Any other model I would shrug it off. But the Euro has been the most consistent and accurate for some time. One other concern is the consensus of most of the models is right over us. The worse case scenario for the Outer Banks has always been a hurricane during a summer holiday. Fortunately, most of the hurricanes have hit after Labor Day which is the peak of the hurricane season when the tourist population is greatly reduced. A land falling hurricane this week is a worse case scenario. Most don't come for just the holiday, but for the week. 90% of rentals are for the week, not daily. So the tourist are here already for the 4th. To be Arthur probably wont even get a name until Wednesday, much too late for an evacuation (Hatteras and Ocracoke islands require 72 hrs minimum). Any loss of power, damage, flooding, etc will spell disaster to a beach full of people. I don't even want to think of damage or flooding that would prevent people from leaving. I will now pray that the Euro is wrong and this post is just a release for my anxiety.

[TheStormExpert]

That pesky northerly shear really has to let before it has a chance to become a TD or even a TS.

Any sign of the northerly shear letting up soon?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wasn't this supposed to be moving North or West by now, where the more favourable conditions are.

[adam0983]

I think we will have Tropical Storm Arthur by 11pm. Invest 91L is getting healthier every hour. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

In my honest opinion this has a ways to go before we see TS Arthur from this. At the very most we could see TD #1 by 11pm maybe 5pm if it magically can get its act together fast since Recon is currently en route to it.

[Blown Away]

It would be crazy to see a system that originated over South Carolina landfall in Florida and then go back to South Carolina...

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending to operational altitude.

[TheStormExpert]

It would be crazy to see a system that originated over South Carolina landfall in Florida and then go back to South Carolina...

Hasn't it happened a good deal of times with systems like Beryl(2012)?

[Okibeach]

This thing has the potential for disaster. What could be a real concern for the Outer Banks. In a couple days as this heads north it will be heading to near ideal conditions. Warm water, great ventilation, low shear. Euro has been consistent for a week. They now have a storm approaching cat 2 strength with a direct hit. Any other model I would shrug it off. But the Euro has been the most consistent and accurate for some time. One other concern is the consensus of most of the models is right over us. The worse case scenario for the Outer Banks has always been a hurricane during a summer holiday. Fortunately, most of the hurricanes have hit after Labor Day which is the peak of the hurricane season when the tourist population is greatly reduced. A land falling hurricane this week is a worse case scenario. Most don't come for just the holiday, but for the week. 90% of rentals are for the week, not daily. So the tourist are here already for the 4th. To be Arthur probably wont even get a name until Wednesday, much too late for an evacuation (Hatteras and Ocracoke islands require 72 hrs minimum). Any loss of power, damage, flooding, etc will spell disaster to a beach full of people. I don't even want to think of damage or flooding that would prevent people from leaving. I will now pray that the Euro is wrong and this post is just a release for my anxiety.

My thinking as well. I live in the Southport / Oak Island area. Certainly easier to evacuate than the Outter Banks but this is always the peak of our tourist season due to Southports annual 4th celebration. This year has been the heaviest visitor level I've seen since I moved here in 03. Almost impossible to get around right now, can not imagine how difficult it would become if evacuation is ordered.