ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a weak LLC near 20N/93.3W. Winds only 5-10 kts within 100 miles of there. Certainly doesn't qualify as a TD today. Earliest development would be tomorrow morning, but it should move ashore tomorrow night.

Recon just cleaned up their line on the path to the possible LLC. They have leveled at 20.5N. I believe they have a radar view on an area they feel is a center.

They've got the lowest pressure thus far 1008.5 in the last OB. Had a couple of SSW winds. I still think something is trying to form a little north of that though

[tropicwatch]

Latest vis loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-93.2&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[tropicwatch]

Going to have to drop off for awhile, will somebody pickup the recco observations? Thanks

[drezee]

Looks like a weak LLC near 20N/93.3W. Winds only 5-10 kts within 100 miles of there. Certainly doesn't qualify as a TD today. Earliest development would be tomorrow morning, but it should move ashore tomorrow night.

Recon just cleaned up their line on the path to the possible LLC. They have leveled at 20.5N. I believe they have a radar view on an area they feel is a center.

Great call 57, Vortex came in at 20.03 and 93.32...

B. 20 deg 02 min N
093 deg 19 min W

[perk]

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

['CaneFreak]

Where did you read that?

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I definitely agree with those that think something is taking shape northeast of the current center based on the RGB loop.

[floridasun78]

were plane found 1009 pressure that were find center?

[tolakram]

were plane found 1009 pressure that were find center?

Yes.

[Nimbus]

Recon found the center near 20n 93w as it made landfall the lowest surface pressure was reported in Belize.
On that WNW heading the track is over a fairly long stretch of warm water.

Short term looks like the upper level pattern will blow it right into Tampico as the models suggest.
HWRF shows a 66 knot minimal hurricane at landfall on Wednesday.

[perk]

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

Check out the 5 day graphical on the NHC website.

[wxman57]

For something not that organized, recon reporting some pretty constant TS force winds.

Recon is reporting generally 5-15 kt winds across the BoC. Highest winds I see are some 25-30 kt winds at FL well SE of the weak center. I wouldn't trust any SFMR winds that are twice the FL winds, particularly when there's limited convection.

I'm pretty sure, given its appearance on satellite now, that this will be a TD tonight and a TS by noon tomorrow. Heading for Mexico, not TX, though.

[TheAustinMan]

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

Check out the 5 day graphical on the NHC website.

Please remember that the 5-day zones denotes an area of potential tropical development, and NOT strictly a forecast cone. At this point one cannot determine the expected motion of 99L based on the marked zone since the system is so close to land - a fast moving system in this area would have a similarly small 5-day area because once it moves over land, the probability of development decreases.

[Hammy]

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

Check out the 5 day graphical on the NHC website.

I could be wrong but I believe the five-day graphic is small because the 48-hour and 120-hour development chances are the same.

[fendie]

The NHC does'nt think 99L is gonna move much in 5 days.

Check out the 5 day graphical on the NHC website.

I think the 5 day graphic represents locations within the next five days the NHC predicts a greater than 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Thus, if the low pressure system is predicted to interact with land and NOT return over water then the probability path will be truncated upon contact with terminal land. Eastern Mexico in this case would be terminal land, the Yucatan Peninsula a few days ago was not since the low pressure was predicted to (and did) move over water again.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Interesting structure on an earlier microwave pass:

[wxman57]

Model guidance says TD Five now.

[CrazyC83]

Intensity 25 kt...I guess they are discarding the higher SFMR readings. The FL winds are not impressive at all though.

[tailgater]

recon plane ascending, I guess they are gonna leave it at that.

[USTropics]

Landfall projected to be around 1AM on Wednesday: