ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[paintplaye]

I think the largest thing to take note of in the short range is the expected NW/NNW movement or center relocation over the next 48 hours. Most models show this which greatly influences the eventual track in the longer range. While troughing is evident on all models, ridging builds back pretty fast off the east coast and a weaker, further south system could be less influenced by the trough. Don't lean on one solution too much this far out. Models are still having issues with the ITCZ and when (and where) 96L splits off completely.

[Alyono]

One other thing to consider, the models often are too far north in this part of the basin

[PTrackerLA]

It's amazing how quickly strong ridging builds back in once the storm nears SE Florida based off the 500mb heights loop here:

18z GFS 500mb Heights loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082018/gfs_z500_mslp_watl.html



I have a hard time believing that a storm would continue to ride the coast north into that ridge and not plow into Florida at this point.

But then again, I may know nothing .

[northjaxpro]

Just have to watch how it all evolves PTracker. I am just anticipating more changes with the models with time.

[paintplaye]

It's amazing how quickly strong ridging builds back in once the storm nears SE Florida based off the 500mb heights loop here:

18z GFS 500mb Heights loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082018/gfs_z500_mslp_watl.html



I have a hard time believing that a storm would continue to ride the coast north into that ridge and not plow into Florida at this point.

But then again, I may know nothing .

At the point you are referencing, storm motion is WNW but the gfs indicates that another trough is going to push through Central and Eastern parts of the U.S. to eventually send it back North.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF has a hurricane heading WNW in bahamas

[SFLcane]

Recurve out sea? We shall see what recon finds tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

When was the last time Jacksonville took a direct hit from a Hurricane??? That GFS 18z is historic.

TS Beryl(2012) nearly was a hurricane, it had an eye in the making.

[sunnyday]

So when should the storm become Christobal? Any ideas?
With some of the models showing a storm offshore SE Fl, wouldn't that area not get much bad weather because the state would be on the west side of the storm?

[Frank2]

This from the Jacksonville WSO discussion - as Jim Cantore said 20 minutes ago, it's just too early to say anything...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES A PLAYER AND THE BEST
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR A POSITION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH UNCERTAIN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER-NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GEORGIA...HOWEVER...NOTE THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE WITH A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE 0600 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
OFFSHORE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE DO NOT JUST [FOCUS] ON THE GFS SOLUTION
YET...LETS SEE IF IT SETTLES DOWN ON AN TRACK AND OTHER MODELS COME
INTO AGREEMENT.

[perk]

This from the Jacksonville WSO discussion - as Jim Cantore said 20 minutes ago, it's just too early to say anything...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES A PLAYER AND THE BEST
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR A POSITION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH UNCERTAIN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER-NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GEORGIA...HOWEVER...NOTE THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE WITH A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE 0600 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
OFFSHORE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE DO NOT JUST [FOCUS] ON THE GFS SOLUTION
YET...LETS SEE IF IT SETTLES DOWN ON AN TRACK AND OTHER MODELS COME
INTO AGREEMENT.

Now that's some good advice.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF strenghthing cane in Bahamas heading wnw

[Blown Away]

Wow that's scary looking...

[SFLcane]

Nasty! If it came to pass...

[gatorcane]

Scary HWRF - hope it is wrong

18Z NAVGEM looks further east on a recurve east of the Bahamas:

[floridasun78]

18z HWRF strenghthing cane in Bahamas heading wnw

that look like andrew jr

[SFLcane]

Favorable winds and sst's in the Bahamas for intensification

[floridasun78]

Nasty! If it came to pass...

those two too andrew jr that near andrew anniversary coming on August 24

[meriland23]

Seems all the models are starting to assume a fish scenario. Anymore right with most and it's just gonna keep swimming..

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles, the concentration is close to the GFS operational though do note there is still a spread there with some ensembles in the Gulf and some east of the United States: