ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z models:

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Check out this excellent upper-air environment as depicted by the 18Z GFS 120 hours from now with an anti-cyclone over the system (you can see the clockwise flow around 96L in the image below) with the trough to the NE providing an outflow channel up into the North Atlantic, not to mention the very warm SSTs in the Bahamas:

[ronjon]

Have to see the 00z GFS and ECM tonite to see if 96L recurves further offshore. Thinking it's more and more likely now.

[ronjon]

On the other hand, ridging builds back in faster with the 18z HWRF which looks like a W-NW movement at 126 hrs.

[cycloneye]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 210047
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20140821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140821 0000 140821 1200 140822 0000 140822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 54.3W 13.6N 56.7W 14.9N 59.5W 16.3N 62.7W
BAMD 12.5N 54.3W 13.5N 57.1W 14.6N 59.9W 15.8N 62.5W
BAMM 12.5N 54.3W 13.7N 57.2W 15.1N 60.2W 16.5N 63.1W
LBAR 12.5N 54.3W 13.2N 57.1W 14.0N 60.2W 14.7N 63.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140823 0000 140824 0000 140825 0000 140826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 65.9W 20.7N 71.6W 22.8N 75.7W 24.3N 78.4W
BAMD 17.0N 64.7W 19.3N 67.7W 20.7N 69.9W 21.8N 72.1W
BAMM 18.2N 65.7W 21.4N 69.9W 24.3N 72.6W 27.0N 73.9W
LBAR 15.7N 66.2W 17.5N 70.7W 19.2N 72.9W 25.1N 77.2W
SHIP 54KTS 64KTS 70KTS 76KTS
DSHP 54KTS 63KTS 68KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 50.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Alyono]

SHIPS track in GFS outflow. Not really useful

[ronjon]

Interesting that the 18z GFS builds in a small mid level ridge off the MD eastern shore that sinks south to just offshore the NC coast in the day 5-7 timeframe which prevents the storm from recurving out to sea. It also causes the storm to just slowly move N-NW along the east coast of FL.

[SFLcane]

00z guidance..

[pgoss11]

00z guidance..

Most of the models appear to miss Hispaniola to the north..hmm..

[Blown Away]

00z... Wow, this could be a bad situation brewing... I think the models missing Hispaniola, boiling SST's, and good upper air pattern are building a giant.

[meriland23]

00z... Wow, this could be a bad situation brewing... I think the models missing Hispaniola, boiling SST's, and good upper air pattern are building a giant.

Oh my!!! Last night the highest peak was a borderline cat 2. That is a massive change.

[gatorcane]

00z guidance..
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Most of the models appear to miss Hispaniola to the north..hmm..

That WNW bend in the Bahamas is something we are going to need to watch closely with future model runs...

[northjaxpro]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
____________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
____________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[meriland23]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
____________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

carribean cruiser??

[Blown Away]

00z guidance..
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Most of the models appear to miss Hispaniola to the north..hmm..

That WNW bend in the Bahamas is something we are going to need to watch closely with future model runs...

That is a classic slot for SFL.... I sure hope it doesn't happen...

[Alyono]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
____________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

a stronger storm may go farther west

We really need to stop saying weak = west. IN this case, a weaker storm will travel with the low level trade winds, resulting faster motion, meaning it can be picked up by the trough

[SouthDadeFish]

A bend back towards the WNW would not be surprising at all if gets trapped under the ridge after the trough moves out.

[tropicwatch]

Timing is everything with this one. Unfortunately it is a wait and see game with so many dynamics at play. This year has been unusual with so many fronts making it through Florida during the summer. I don't remember this happening so frequently this time of year.