ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

a stronger storm may go farther west

We really need to stop saying weak = west. IN this case, a weaker storm will travel with the low level trade winds, resulting faster motion, meaning it can be picked up by the trough

Evening Alyono,

I always enjoy reading your post. I understand about the weaker system following the trade winds. But can you explain a bit about how a stronger storm could go further west.

[Alyono]

Also, with 96L apparently organizing quite nicely this evening and quicker than expected, if this trend continues, the odds of this being a Carribbean cruiser are rapidly decreasing.
____________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

a stronger storm may go farther west

We really need to stop saying weak = west. IN this case, a weaker storm will travel with the low level trade winds, resulting faster motion, meaning it can be picked up by the trough

Evening Alyono,

I always enjoy reading your post. I understand about the weaker system following the trade winds. But can you explain a bit about how a stronger storm could go further west.

A weaker system will move faster due to the fast trade winds. This will mean it is farther west sooner and closer to the trough. Thus, the weak system may be captured by the trough.

A stronger system will move a touch slower. This would allow it to miss the trough and be trapped beneath the ridge

[northjaxpro]

We shall see. If 96L is a stronger cyclone by the time it nears the NE Caribbean, I am inclined to believe that the trough coming down the U.S. seaboard by Monday will influence it and 96L will stay mainly just north of the Greater Antilles, especially PR and Hispaniola, and Cuba. Just my view. However, I definitely know that thingscan change quickly with these systems and models of course.

Meriland a Caribbean cruiser is just a slang term I use for a tropical cyclone traversing directly through the Caribbean west or west-northwestward.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see this recurring away it's going to be too close to us and it does look like ridging rebuilds on top of it on some of these models.

There's no definitive call that can be made right now until we actually have a storm to track.

[SFLcane]

Lastest FIM...

['CaneFreak]

The 6-10 day analogs that I posted several pages back seemed to suggest that this might be one of the more reasonable solutions so I would tend to agree. We have been stuck in this same general pattern for a while now and it seems pretty stable.

A bend back towards the WNW would not be surprising at all if gets trapped under the ridge after the trough moves out.

[gatorcane]

Lastest FIM...

[http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082012/t6/wind_10m_f156.png

Wow is all I have to say

Models seems to be latching on to a more WNW turn in the Bahamas....

I hoped they would have been turning it more NE instead and recurving but that is not happening with the latest runs.

[ronjon]

Lastest FIM...

[http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082012/t6/wind_10m_f156.png

Wow is all I have to say

Models seems to be latching on to a more WNW turn in the Bahamas....

I hoped they would have been turning it more NE instead and recurving but that is not happening with the latest runs.

Yeah GC...thought earlier it might go out to sea. But ridging seems to be progged to build in from the mid-Atlantic a little faster now. Anxious to see what the 00z globals show.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that FIM run is ominous looking for sure. Just hope it does not come to fruition the way the system is shown there in that run, but this possibility is certainly plausible.

[Bocadude85]

Lastest FIM...

[http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082012/t6/wind_10m_f156.png

Wow is all I have to say

Models seems to be latching on to a more WNW turn in the Bahamas....

I hoped they would have been turning it more NE instead and recurving but that is not happening with the latest runs.

The FIM has been pretty consistent with its forecast of a South Florida landfall...in fact the last run had landfall in the same general area.

The FIM seems to have a similar track to the 1949 Lake Worth hurricane. That hurricane developed in the same general area as we'll.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1949_Florida_hurricane

[asd123]

Referring to the image posted by Blown Away viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116616&start=240 13th post. (just thought it would be appropriate if I posted my comment in the models section instead of the discussion)

If that track were to come through Florida it would be torture; living in Central Florida to endure a hurricane going as close and over as much land area as possible in the close proximity of Central Florida. It's one thing if it comes from one direction and goes out another direction without changing paths. I certainly hope the system misses us entirely.

BTW: On that image, what hurricane was that?

[Bocadude85]

Referring to the image posted by Blown Away viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116616&start=240 13th post. (just thought it would be appropriate if I posted my comment in the models section instead of the discussion)

If that track were to come through Florida it would be torture; living in Central Florida to endure a hurricane going as close and over as much land area as possible in the close proximity of Central Florida. It's one thing if it comes from one direction and goes out another direction without changing paths. I certainly hope the system misses us entirely.

BTW: On that image, what hurricane was that?

Looks to be the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane

[ObsessedMiami]

Interesting. Buckle up SFL. Once the Miami media gets wind of these models......

[meriland23]

Interesting. Buckle up SFL. Once the Miami media gets wind of these models......

Don't fret too prematurely. Just last night GFS assumed Texas landfall, tonight its all the way over to the EC. Keep a eye out but be aware this is yet to form completely and the models don't have a consistent idea yet where it will go.

[NDG]

a stronger storm may go farther west

We really need to stop saying weak = west. IN this case, a weaker storm will travel with the low level trade winds, resulting faster motion, meaning it can be picked up by the trough

Evening Alyono,

I always enjoy reading your post. I understand about the weaker system following the trade winds. But can you explain a bit about how a stronger storm could go further west.

A weaker system will move faster due to the fast trade winds. This will mean it is farther west sooner and closer to the trough. Thus, the weak system may be captured by the trough.

A stronger system will move a touch slower. This would allow it to miss the trough and be trapped beneath the ridge

I was just looking at the 18z GFS and comparing it to the 12z Euro, over all both models have the same sypnotic pattern and H50 forecast through at least the next 5 days, with the trough weakening the narrow ridge to the north of 96L by late Saturday into Sunday morning. Is exactly what you said, the euro moves 96L faster than the GFS which has the system stronger and moving it slower. On the euro run it catches up to the break in the narrow ridge north of Hispaniola much faster than the GFS shows thus it shows it gaining latitude before the ridges bridge again.

[ObsessedMiami]

Interesting. Buckle up SFL. Once the Miami media gets wind of these models......

Don't fret too prematurely. Just last night GFS assumed Texas landfall, tonight its all the way over to the EC. Keep a eye out but be aware this is yet to form completely and the models don't have a consistent idea yet where it will go.

Of course. Thanks for the post. Good to always remember. But I was referring to the Miami media more than the storm itself, lol.

[AdamFirst]

Two runs in a row for the FIM that landfalls in the Broward-Palm Beach County area. 12z had it landfall on the county line, near Boca.

[deltadog03]

00z GFS looks a smidge further south this run so far. Still looks weak and south of PR.

[Jevo]

0z GFS initialized

0z GFS +24

[meriland23]

00z GFS looks a smidge further south this run so far. Still looks weak and south of PR.

I thought it looked further north than 18Z?