CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone think it will strengthen a good bit when it reaches the favourable conditions later on?

Meh, this seems like one of those storms that have a lot of ups and downs.

[AbcdeerHI]

Looks like all her convection has shifted to the west and north of her circulation.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like all her convection has shifted to the west and north of her circulation.

Certainly. Looks albeit shallower. Recon should be going in soon.

SAB keeps it a hurricane.

[Alyono]

recon already in this

recon found surface winds of 71 kts and a 989mb pressyre

[Kingarabian]

Location: 16.6N 156.2W
About 225 miles (360 km) SSW of Hilo Hawaii
About 340 miles (550 km) SSE of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees at 17 mph (27 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 989 MB or 29.21 inches

Up to 80MPH.

[Kingarabian]

Alyono what's the movement so far?

[Kingarabian]

[Alyono]

still wnw. looking likely that the core misses Hawaii now

[AbcdeerHI]

Location: 16.6N 156.2W
About 225 miles (360 km) SSW of Hilo Hawaii
About 340 miles (550 km) SSE of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees at 17 mph (27 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 989 MB or 29.21 inches

Up to 80MPH.

Ana has sped up and has wobbled to the left from earlier today. Its showing up on the 00z cycle as the shift to the left continues.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah up to 15kts. Hawaii dodging a bullet.

[wxman57]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

[Kingarabian]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

That European model is good.

[AbcdeerHI]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

Would any change in strength cause Ana to wobble/jog to the right?

[Kingarabian]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

Would any change in strength cause Ana to wobble/jog to the right?

If it weakens and becomes shallow then I think the currents will take it further west. If it strengthens then it's going to feel the high even more and go west. I think Ana is done being considered a threat to Hawaii and those watches should be dropped.

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[wxman57]

Would any change in strength cause Ana to wobble/jog to the right?

I don't see anything to indicate an increasing risk to Hawaii. Hawaii dodged another bullet with this storm.

[Kingarabian]

Would any change in strength cause Ana to wobble/jog to the right?

I don't see anything to indicate an increasing risk to Hawaii. Hawaii dodged another bullet with this storm.

Yup. Another great call by Wxman57.

[Kingarabian]

986mb just found.

[AbcdeerHI]

Would any change in strength cause Ana to wobble/jog to the right?

I don't see anything to indicate an increasing risk to Hawaii. Hawaii dodged another bullet with this storm.

Yup. Another great call by Wxman57.

Alright, well aloha to Ana. Thanks for your guy's insight and knowledge.

[gatorcane]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

Yep what a bullet Hawaii dodged on this one. May be a long time before they get a threat like this again.

ECMWF had it south of Hawaii from the get-go and it looks like it will verify. I am starting to think that for tropical systems in general, if the ECMWF does not show anything significant threatening land in either the Atlantic or E Pacific basin, there probably is not much to worry about. This model just keeps showing why it is the best out there time and time again.

Not sure how the ECMWF has done in the WPAC as I don't follow that basin much.

[Kingarabian]

Alright, well aloha to Ana. Thanks for your guy's insight and knowledge.

Keep your eyes peeled, however!