WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[Equilibrium]

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140728 1200 12.0N 149.8E WPAC 25 1004

12Z in...Winds up to 25 knots and pressure down to 1004mb...

[euro6208]

Header for 90W changed to 11W in BT and NRLMRY/FNMOC!

We have Tropical Depression 11W now!

Warning text and graphic should follow...

[euro6208]

000
FPMY70 PGUM 281245
NOWMY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1045 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

PMZ151-281400-
GUAM WATERS-
1045 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 1200 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-SURFACE LIGHTNING TO THE GUAM
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE ISLAND.

BOATERS COULD EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE. IF YOU
ARE BOATING AND SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...SEEK SHELTER BELOW
DECKS.

THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF GUST TO 30 KTS.

$$

ZIOBRO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS bullish on the future typhoon Halong. 971 mb typhoon shown passing close to Guam consistently. Halong is forecast to peak at 947 mb over the open Pacific Ocean.

[euro6208]

Latest model track plots from HWRF and AVNO has this a bit more north passing between Rota and Saipan...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

20 knots for a depression? More like an invest tho.

11W ELEVEN 140728 0600 11.9N 150.2E WPAC 20 1005

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest model track plots from HWRF and AVNO has this a bit more north passing between Rota and Saipan...

It's actually good news that it'd spare you.

[euro6208]

20 knots for a depression? More like an invest tho.

11W ELEVEN 140728 0600 11.9N 150.2E WPAC 20 1005

Likely upped when the 1st warning comes out later...

[Equilibrium]

boarder line TS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

.

So another weak tropical storm passing through the area although this should dump more rain over the islands that's been drenched over the past few days from the active monsoon trough...

[euro6208]

Closeup view of potential track using the latest JT warning. Just south of Tinian...

[euro6208]

1. Moving slowly west northwestward at 04 knots.
2. Equatorward outflow combined with low shear of 5-15 knots.
3. Mid-Latitude trough should modify and drive *Halong* to the northwest

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS GROWN IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 281016Z
PARTIAL TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS POORLY DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHILE THE LLCC
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
POSITIONAL FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF AMBIGUITY SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, DEPICTS A CHAOTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MODIFYING INTO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS
TROUGH PRESSING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED GROWTH IN THE
CONVECTION WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY LOW (05
TO 15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
MID TO LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
STR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF TINIAN AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY DURING THIS
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS JAPAN TRANSITS WELL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
DRIVING TD 11W NORTHWESTWARD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS TOWARDS THE MARIANAS ISLANDS AS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING MODERATE VWS WHILE ALONG
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWEST ALONG THE STR TO THE NORTH. CONTINUED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL AND SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE. LIMITED MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACK GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH AT
GREATLY VARIED INTENSITIES. GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, AND HWRF SUPPORT
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
WHILE EGRR SHOWS THE SAME TRACK AT A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE.
NAVGEM DISPLAYS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM AS IT BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ALL CONVECTION. DUE TO THE
CURRENT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH, THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE SOME
VALIDITY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 281531
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.2N 149.5E

ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY TOWARD NORTHWEST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS
FORECASTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

M.AYDLETT/SIMPSON

[euro6208]

Impressive. -80 cloud tops spreading southward...Massive rainfall underway soon to spread across the marianas...

[euro6208]

Latest shear maps from CIMSS showing a sharp uptick. 6 hours ago 5-10 knots now showing 20 knots and along the path values have increased over the past 24 hours...

Saving grace for the Marianas?

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Slight shift to the south compared to the last warning as it tracks unexpectedly to the west southwest.

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281624Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TD 11W TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND SST ARE CONDUCIVE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE
TRACK AT EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 282244 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

CORRECTED TYPOS

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W STILL HEADING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.7N 148.3E

ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS
FORECASTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON