WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

I am actually just waiting for the ECMWF to join the rest and show the recurve.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

COAMPS showing a recurve although closer to the Philippines than the GFS.

[cycloneye]

JMA makes it official.

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 1 December 2014
<Analyses at 01/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N3°40'(3.7°)
E153°30'(153.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N4°50'(4.8°)
E151°05'(151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°40'(5.7°)
E149°00'(149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hagupit is such an interesting name.

It actually means "whip" or "lash" in Tagalog which is a very fitting name for a tropical cyclone, especially for one which may become powerful.

[Nairobi]

ECMWF still not forecasting anything huge or even recurving.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF still not forecasting anything huge or even recurving.

Typhoon-force winds near a major city is quite huge, though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The intrusion or break in the ridge is no longer visible, and the ridge continues to strengthen.

[Nairobi]

Typhoon-force winds near a major city is quite huge, though.

Which major city? Manila not being forecasted by ECMWF-operational anything stronger than 5 m/s. But Tacloban City 27 m/s.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoon-force winds near a major city is quite huge, though.

Which major city? Manila not being forecasted by ECMWF-operational anything stronger than 5 m/s.

Cebu City. If not, the entire metropolitan area, population of nearly 3 million.

[Nairobi]

Cebu City 14 m/s.
http://m.yr.no/sted/Filippinene/Annet/C ... arsel.html

[dexterlabio]

I think the depicted break in the ridge by the models is just about to happen....when the forecasted trough comes in the coming days....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think the depicted break in the ridge by the models is just about to happen....when the forecasted trough comes in the coming days....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... 1java.html

[euro6208]

100 knots major typhoon forecast. This is going to be a lot stronger

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010156
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
1200 PM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL IN
CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF
40 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...4.1N 153.4E

ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
WILL BE NEAR LATITUDE 4.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.4 EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W SOUTH OF PULUWAT AND SATAWAL ON
TUESDAY AND NEAR WOLEAI AND FARAULEP ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[gatorcane]

Even the conservative UKMET is very bullish down to 980MB by day 5. It does show it slowing down and "feeling" the weakness by day 4 with a slow WNW movement through day 7.

[cycloneye]

It has been an explosive Sunday that this system has been going thru as in the morning it had a low chance,a few hours later goes up to Medium,less than 6 hours later a TCFA is issued with a high chance and 3 hours later is a TD.This underscores how favorable are the conditions for this to be a formidable Typhoon.It will be a good one to track.Hopefully it miss landmasses.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It looks really like a tropical storm, and thus should be upgraded in the next warning.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Even the conservative UKMET is very bullish down to 980MB by day 5. It does show it slowing down and "feeling" the weakness by day 4 with a slow WNW movement through day 7.

So, does that mean landfall? I guess that's like the ECMWF, which is feeling the weakness, moving NW, then landfalling moving west..

[cycloneye]

TS Watch issued for CHUUCK and a Typhoon Watch issued for Yap.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
1200 PM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PULUWAT AND SATAWAL IN
CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF
40 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...4.1N 153.4E

ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
WILL BE NEAR LATITUDE 4.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.4 EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W SOUTH OF PULUWAT AND SATAWAL ON
TUESDAY AND NEAR WOLEAI AND FARAULEP ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[dexterlabio]

It has been an explosive Sunday that this system has been going thru as in the morning it had a low chance,a few hours later goes up to Medium,less than 6 hours later a TCFA is issued with a high chance and 3 hours later is a TD.This underscores how favorable are the conditions for this to be a formidable Typhoon.It will be a good one to track.Hopefully it miss landmasses.

Reminds me of the previous two late-season typhoons in the Western Pacific, Bopha and Haiyan. And I want to highlight your last sentence too. It would be best if a cyclone of this magnitude misses the Philippines this time around. Since Washi in 2011, late-season cyclones caused over a thousand deaths in this country every year.

Luckily for now, only ECMWF is showing the "doom" scenario. And hopefully mother nature knows when enough is enough...