ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

RAMDIS: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

RAMDIS 1K Floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=7

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT. A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[tropicwatch]

The which way will it go shape

[SFLcane]

convection on the increase this afternoon...

[Alyono]

could argue this is a TD now based upon the recon reports

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah the center does look like its becoming better defined. Although, it looks farther north than where the models initialized.

[northjaxpro]

Just waiting on a convective burst, then NHC will upgrade.

[gatorcane]

I see it at 16.5N, 57.5W hauling NW - overall structure improving, just needs a burst of convection near that LLC and we may get NHC to declare it a TD

[SapphireSea]

Seems to be spitting out alot of outflow boundaries or just me. Convection may wane even further if this keeps up. Wonder how instability is in the area and ahead.

[gatorcane]

if this misses the islands the north which it looks like it may just miss them to north, I would say we could have a big difference on the intensity forecast from the models...

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers for 96L mentionned as TOO WEAK...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1745 UTC 16.5N 57.5W TOO WEAK 96L
21/1145 UTC 14.9N 56.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
21/0545 UTC 13.8N 55.5W T1.0/1.0 96L

[jlauderdal]

Nice 5-day graphic, what shape is that?

its the we have two differing solutions here and both have credibility so we dont really know but are leaning to the recurve scenario

[northjaxpro]

I saw the trend last night in how overall the system was quickly gaining latitude. My confidence is growing now that 96L will move north or PR and Hispaniola.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ouragans]

If this trend continues, with a 300+ deg track, 96L will miss all the islands. The center is apparently E of Guadeloupe, and Barbuda might the only one directly affected. I keep on my position to say "see you next year, guys..."

[NDG]

Recon is showing some fairly legit TD force winds.

183630 1643N 05714W 9768 00309 0117 +240 +211 140031 032 031 000 00
183700 1642N 05716W 9774 00303 0117 +240 +220 144032 033 031 000 00
183730 1642N 05717W 9767 00309 0116 +239 +220 145034 036 032 000 00

[northjaxpro]

Decreasing numbers for 96L mentionned as TOO WEAK...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1745 UTC 16.5N 57.5W TOO WEAK 96L
21/1145 UTC 14.9N 56.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
21/0545 UTC 13.8N 55.5W T1.0/1.0 96L

Makes sense due to the lack of convection currently near the LLC.

[SFLcane]

Improved banding this afternoon

[Hurricaneman]

Recon also found a LLCC around 17.7N 61.2W so this has multiple circulations and using that idea this still has a ways to go, that center may take over if the exposed one doesn't convect

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

zoom 2 visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

What's striking to me is how much better it looks, except for the convection.

[Alyono]

Recon also found a LLCC around 17.7N 61.2W so this has multiple circulations and using that idea this still has a ways to go, that center may take over if the exposed one doesn't convect

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

they we flying at altitude at 61W