WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[dhoeze]

Gurus,

Anyone have a reading of current wind gust here in Metro Manila and rain fall? PAGASA site is loading very very slowly.

Again much appreciated for your response

[supercane]

Peak winds have already occurred. Here are the METARs from RPLL (Ninoy Aquino International Airport), which is south of Manila. (Source: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/)

9am: RPLL 160100Z 12025G48KT 090V170 5000 RA BKN018 OVC070 25/25 Q0995 NOSIG RMK A2939
8am: RPLL 160000Z 120033G56KT 090V160 5000 +RA BKN018 OVC070 24/24 Q0991 BECMG 16030G45KT RMK A2927
7am: RPLL 152300Z 08036G61KT 3000 +RA BKN016 OVC250 24/24 Q0988 TEMPO 2000 RMK A2918
6am: RPLL 152200Z 02027G38KT 5000 RA BKN016 OVC050 25/25 Q0990 TEMPO 4000 RMK A2924
5am: RPLL 152100Z 36024G35KT 7000 +RA BKN016 OVC050 25/25 Q0992 NOSIG RMK A2930
4am: RPLL 152000Z 35025G39KT 320V020 7000 +RA BKN016 0VC050 25/25 Q0994 NOSIG RMK A2936

From this data, you can see the peak hourly wind occurred around 7am with sustained winds of 36kt and gusts to 61kt. The minimal pressure was 988mb.

[CrazyC83]

That suggests that Manila only saw tropical storm conditions - and yet those are still very dangerous.

[Alyono]

Maybe so but JTWC will probably keep it a 2.

almost certainly cat 1 now... and low end cat 1

their estimates have been between awful and horrendous all day

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That suggests that Manila only saw tropical storm conditions - and yet those are still very dangerous.

RPLL is at the Northwestern part, so cities over the southern part like Muntinlupa, Makati and Taguig got typhoon force gusts.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00z warning. 47 miles WSW of Manila.

REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 119.6E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Rammasun looks pretty impressive this morning. Deep convection and a nice cyclonic spin is noted.



Synopsis for Western Pacifc and other basins:http://goo.gl/uQHaCc

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

Power was just restored in my area. Still raining but the wind has significantly decreased.

No power lines were toppled in my area so power was restored immediately although from what I heard from the news, there were a lot of damaged power lines in metro manila...90% of the customers of meralco(power distribution company) lost power.

[dhoeze]

stay safe sir.
At home, power is still down... I am here at work now helping our people who was not able to go home to give them temp shelter and some food...

Gurus,

Thanks for the infos shared. really appreciate it.

[vrif]

The eye is reappearing

[euro6208]

Hope all is well in the philippines and hoping for a speedy recovery.

Rammasun is looking good despite it was over land a few hours ago. An eye is appearing
and JTWC expects reintensification back to Major typhoon status before another landfall!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In a news report earlier, 18 are reported dead in CALABARZON alone.

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully the death toll won't rise high...

[euro6208]

Category 3 into Hainan Island...

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.3N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 118.5E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES TY 09W REMAINS SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED AS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 160321Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME SLOPPY
AND HARD TO DEFINE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP ALONG WITH POSITIONAL
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A WIDE SPREAD
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. TY
RAMMASUN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE MORE
OPEN WATERS OF THE SCS, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS
WILL ALLOW TY 09W TO REORGANIZE AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH THE
PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, PRIOR TO MAKING
A SECOND LANDFALL ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
HAINAN ISLAND WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES OVER THE
GULF OF TONKIN AND MAKES ANOTHER LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON RAMMASUN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
VIETNAM AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

The initial intensity is probably too high; I'd have it at 70 kt personally given the intermittent eye and loss of definition.

[Alyono]

breaking news

JT issues a reasonable forecast! 85 kt landfall intensity now into Hainan

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp0914.gif

[Hurricane_Luis]

breaking news

JT issues a reasonable forecast! 85 kt landfall intensity now into Hainan

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp0914.gif

Oh, That's a new format. A full view of the past track. Hope its not permanent.

[phwxenthusiast]

Have you guys noticed that there are no longer Prognostic Reasoning on the JTWC bulletins? The remarks section have also been shortened with the wave height missing as well.

Hopefully this is just temporary.

[euro6208]

getting better organized...