WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

I agree with WxMan57 on this. Looks like we could have another "Euro-NAIL" as far as track.

[ohno]

Is it moving WSW or just establishing the eye?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I agree with WxMan57 on this. Looks like we could have another "Euro-NAIL" as far as track.

Yep. Agree too, but I'm not favoring the impact.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's starting to a WSW-ward jog.

[ozonepete]

Haha it's used a little loosely in the business or seems that way. But missing land is not part of the definition of recurve. Any time a TC (in the northern hemisphere) starts to move northward from a westward track it is recurving. Recurving does not mean it will miss land. Some of the most intense and/or noteworthy storms to hit Manila moved west of the central Philippines and then recurved northeastward over you. So when I say that this storm will not continue westward but turn west-northwestward or northwestward it's natural to say it's recurving. It may recurve for a while and then turn back westward but while it is curving poleward from a westward track it is said to be recurving. OK?

Haha ok got it. Because in the Philippines when PAGASA says "recurve", it means the storm is going towards Japan. Thank you for posting. I do appreciate the pro mets from the Western Hemisphere finding time to share their thoughts regarding WPAC systems.

Haha ok no problem. That's why when a strong hurricane gets into our Gulf of Mexico you hear meteorologists say it's unfortunate because the storm has to hit land. It will either go westward and hit land or will recurve and hit land anyway.

[ozonepete]

I agree with WxMan57 on this. Looks like we could have another "Euro-NAIL" as far as track.

Time will tell.

[oaba09]

?? But we were talking about the adjustment since the last advisory, not from yesterday til now.

Apologies. I thought you were referring to the general trend.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As much as I would love for Hagupit to miss the Philippines, I'd say the chances of that are very slim right now. Taking a look at water vapor imagery, there's plenty of troughing across Japan, and its definitely allowed the cyclone to take on a west-northwest trajectory today. However, Hagupit remains low in latitude, and it appears as if the subtropical ridge to the north of the system will rebuild before the system can fully recurve. If I were to make a forecast, it'd be slightly north of the 03z JTWC update and a little stronger now that the EWRC is complete.

[euro6208]

Oh my...eye continues to clear...

RAW numbers back up to 6.6...

[ozonepete]

No. luckily. The large eye means it can maintain close to current strength more easily but cannot strengthen.

ozonepete That was your post bro.

Put my cards on the table i think it will re-intensify in the next 6 hour period.

No models forecast any more strengthening. In fact all forecast weakening and so does the JTWC. So what are you basing your forecast for strengthening on?

[euro6208]

[ozonepete]

As much as I would love for Hagupit to miss the Philippines, I'd say the chances of that are very slim right now. Taking a look at water vapor imagery, there's plenty of troughing across Japan, and its definitely allowed the cyclone to take on a west-northwest trajectory today. However, Hagupit remains low in latitude, and it appears as if the subtropical ridge to the north of the system will rebuild before the system can fully recurve. If I were to make a forecast, it'd be slightly north of the 03z JTWC update and a little stronger now that the EWRC is complete.

http://i.imgur.com/V84wZQT.gif

Yeah I've been saying Naga for the last 6 hours. Still sticking to that for now.

[ozonepete]

After debating the different points on strength and track I think we all could agree that this is a very dangerous typhoon that has a very strong surge associated with it and it is very likely to hit the north and central Philippines pretty hard at this juncture, especially the north. So everyone there should be rushing all preparations to completion, getting in a safe place, and then hoping for the best. I wish you all the best and please stay safe!

[euro6208]

RAW T number continues to climb now 7.1...

[djones65]

Pete, just so I understand. Anytime a cyclone moves northwest or even west northwest you consider that to be a "recurve?" or as you said those "in the business" consider it to be recurving?
Seriously?
A recurve by definition is a north and northeast turn. Otherwise it is simply a poleward motion which should be expected in all cyclones by nature. Hagupit is no longer forecast to "recurve" prior to hitting the Philippines. It is misleading to use that term in my opinion. I just wanted to clarify for any interests reading this from the Philippines so they do not expect a recurve scenario from a professional meteorologist.

[tolakram]

Latest

[euro6208]

22W HAGUPIT 141205 0600 11.9N 128.9E WPAC 125 929

06Z remains a strong category 4...Moving north of west...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Center is now at 11.8571°N, 128.9286°E after I did an analysis. It is moving west.

[mrbagyo]

it's re strengthening -eye is clearing ,cloudtops are getting colder, this might have a chance at getting back to cat 5 status if the trend continue

[AbcdeerHI]

Noticed some were posting steering current maps earlier but the maps they were posting were for Tropical Storm/Cat 1 strength. Here is the 6z map for sub 940 hpa storms. I wonder how much of a slow down and/or turn Hagupit makes?



This graph shows Tropical Cyclone Strength (hpa) VS Environmental Steering Levels (hpa) in the troposphere. As you can see Hagupit is being steered by 700-200 hpa column.
[img][/img]