EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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#521 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:10 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I think the only inhibiting factor right now could be possible inner core changes in the near future. Barring that, however, I'd say a Category 5 is likely. It will be my first ever tracking!


Outflow to the N is kinda slacking. Cloud tops warming to the NW. But Dvorak should take care of itself.
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#522 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:11 am

RL3AO wrote:Clear as day T7.0 Obviously constraints are the issue as NHC mentioned. Constrains will allow a FT of 7.0 for the next advisory. If it can maintain until then, NHC can go 140...


SAB at TAFB gave it at 5.0 at 3z, right?
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#523 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:13 am

Really cool looking...maybe our 3rd cat 5 in the NHEM later on?!?
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#524 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:13 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 15:57:11 N Lon : 111:21:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 943.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.5 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.9 degrees
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Re:

#525 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:14 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I think the only inhibiting factor right now could be possible inner core changes in the near future. Barring that, however, I'd say a Category 5 is likely. It will be my first ever tracking!


You can see the images of close to peak and at peak at the first post of thread.I do this to have a good archieve of images of very powerful hurricane Marie.

First post archieve of images
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Re: Re:

#526 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:14 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Clear as day T7.0 Obviously constraints are the issue as NHC mentioned. Constrains will allow a FT of 7.0 for the next advisory. If it can maintain until then, NHC can go 140...


SAB at TAFB gave it at 5.0 at 3z, right?


Looks like a 4.5 at 18z yesterday and a 5.0 at 0z. 2.5 in 24/hr and 2.0 in 18/hr both allow a 7.0 w/o breaking constraints for the next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#527 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:26 am

ADT numbers should rise to well above CI7.0 if Marie can maintain its intensity untill tonight as following the constraint limit of 1.3T/6hr

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#528 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:26 am

Marie is amazing! Blew up so quickly!
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#529 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:27 am

Zoomed out RGB.
Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#530 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:27 am

One thing i love about Marie?

It's a fish :lol:
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#531 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:30 am

Saved loop when the sun came up. Of course it is on the archieve images at first post.

Image
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#532 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:32 am

Best looking system I've seen since Haiyan.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#533 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:33 am

:uarrow:

Just imagine being on an oil rig under that eyewall... :eek:
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#534 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:33 am

Looks 140-150 kts now.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#535 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:35 am

euro6208 wrote::uarrow:

Just imagine being on an oil rig under that eyewall... :eek:

That's nothing compared to being in a small boat because it is much worse if you were in a small boat sailing in 160-kt wind gusts.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#536 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:36 am

euro6208 wrote::uarrow:

Just imagine being on an oil rig under that eyewall... :eek:


Most of MX's oil rigs are on the ATL side. Not an issue here.
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#537 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:37 am

Impressive storm. We knew this would be a big mamma with the GFS and ECMWF so bullish on it way before it even formed.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#538 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:42 am

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-112&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

RAMDIS also has a 1km floater on it: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_gw_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=3

Change number_of_images_to_display as the day goes on.
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Re:

#539 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:42 am

gatorcane wrote:Impressive storm. We knew this would be a big mamma with the GFS and ECMWF so bullish on it way before it even formed.


This storm on a forecasting standpoint was easy! Still amazing to see it pan out vs modelling. Of course the EPAC 2014 just go with the strongest model :lol:
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#540 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:43 am

The eye is almost perfectly warmed on IR imagery and may even hit 20℃
Cloud region temp supports around 145kt IMO

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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