ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

plane report this SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph) their some ts wind few storm round 93l

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't believe recon is actually flying into this system. Looks to me like the LLC is opening up.

[tropicwatch]

Sure is looking pitiful.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

93L is not looking so well and it missed its last chance so far to become a TD. we will see what HH will find...


Synopsis of 93L and other systems in other basins: http://goo.gl/Ml1xOm



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[Alyono]

recon seems to indicate this may have opened up into a wave. Should be SW winds in the SEQ, but we have SSE winds

[StarmanHDB]

I can't believe recon is actually flying into this system. Looks to me like the LLC is opening up.

Just because 93L appears to be on its last legs doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't a wealth of scientific data to be collected. As recon missions are ridiculously costly, I'd like to think that there has to be something worth taking away from this system. Should be an interesting analysis for meteorologists.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm probably remembering parts of this wrong, but didn't the NHC discuss the possibility of issuing TS watches for not-yet-classified tropical cyclones at a conference a few years ago? This would be an ideal time to test that out if they still wanted to try the concept. Don't upgrade, but issue watches.

[Alyono]

newer data is showing that perhaps a small circulation remains, but it is VERY weak on the south side

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force. However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[gatorcane]

Still at 70%? Very interesting...thought it would have been lowered some

[Airboy]

recon seems to indicate this may have opened up into a wave. Should be SW winds in the SEQ, but we have SSE winds

Think you are looking at the wrong place, because I can't see it have been SE of the "center"?

[TheStormExpert]

Still at 70%? Very interesting...thought it would have been lowered some

Maybe they see something we don't, or since recon is still investigating it they left it alone then will decrease percentages at 8pm TWO.

[Hammy]

It still seems to be competing for energy with the piece of wave immediately to its west; the fact that most of the convection is now transferring there means that it's basically over for 93.

[Blown Away]

93L keeps getting pushed farther and farther SW with each TAFB update... The 72 hour forecast position is SW of the models...

[TheStormExpert]

http://i58.tinypic.com/wajdkx.jpg
93L keeps getting pushed farther and farther SW with each TAFB update... The 72 hour forecast position is SW of the models...

If that was to verify there would for sure be nothing of it left. Hispaniola would eat it's remains for dinner!

[NDG]

I can't believe recon is actually flying into this system. Looks to me like the LLC is opening up.

They are just getting into the SW quadrant of the naked LLC, westerly winds being found, it has not opened up.

[NDG]

Plenty of westerly winds, not that light at all should I point out.

183200 1033N 05349W 9772 00299 0111 +240 +152 294012 013 016 001 00
183230 1031N 05349W 9768 00304 0112 +238 +157 298011 012 019 000 00
183300 1030N 05349W 9770 00303 0114 +237 +156 293011 012 018 000 00
183330 1028N 05349W 9764 00309 0115 +235 +158 288012 013 017 000 03
183400 1028N 05348W 9773 00301 0114 +236 +156 271009 012 /// /// 03
183430 1029N 05347W 9770 00302 0113 +235 +157 262009 010 018 000 00
183500 1030N 05346W 9770 00301 0112 +238 +153 264010 010 018 000 00
183530 1032N 05345W 9773 00298 0111 +240 +152 262011 011 018 000 00
183600 1033N 05344W 9770 00300 0111 +240 +151 264011 011 018 000 00

[tropicwatch]

If that little patch of dry air sitting right in its NW quadrant wasn't there, things would be different.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

I looked close but could not see the plane.

[wxman57]

The plane is finding a broad, weak low pressure circulation, as satellite winds indicated. There hasn't been any question as to whether or not it had a circulation for the past 2-3 days. The issue is a lack of organized convection near the center. A depression requires both, so this remains a disturbance. It passed its peak intensity 2 days ago. Development chances are low now.