ATL: Ex NINE

[northjaxpro]

Wxman, I would never speak any ill towards Bones. Not referring to me uh?

[cycloneye]

To complete the info that wxman57 posted,here is the text of the 18z Best Track and it is moving ENE. If 94L wanted to have a decent chance it was better to move ESE and away from the influence of the front.

At 1800 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.0°N and 87°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 65 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[wxman57]

Wxman, I would never speak any ill towards Bones. Not referring to me uh?

Nah, it was that new kid here who never heard of Star Trek.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I'm new...can someone explain who Bones is?

GOOD GRIEF! Seriously though, Welcome to Storm 2K. Bones is Dr. McCoy from Star Trek, who had lots of famous lines, one being ... it's dead Jim.

Your assignment is to watch all the original Star Trek episodes over the long winter.

Been a very long work day, that's just to funny I needed that.

[northjaxpro]

Wxman, I would never speak any ill towards Bones. Not referring to me uh?

Nah, it was that new kid here who never heard of Star Trek.

Oh OK. Funny he didn't know Bones uh? Yeah, 94L is moving on a header which is now north of east, which is an indicator that the front is interacting with it now. So, if this interaction is indeed occuring, it is getting near the time to closing the book on this system.

[floridasun78]

let see if wx have eat bone if forecast dont go right we see soon have dinner ready for wx with bone cook well nhc NOT KILL INVEST YET * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[blp]

To complete the info that wxman57 posted,here is the text of the 18z Best Track and it is moving ENE. If 94L wanted to have a decent chance it was better to move ESE and away from the influence of the front.

At 1800 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.0°N and 87°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 65 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

Well I actually think the ENE might help it down the road because most of the models have it diving SE when the ridge builds in and making land interaction which causes its ultimate demise so the more northerly it goes it will be harder to run into Honduras. I don't think the trough will carry it out or kill it either.

I for one have not been following the models too much because they have not done well IMO. I am going with current observations and see how it plays out.

[floridasun78]

To complete the info that wxman57 posted,here is the text of the 18z Best Track and it is moving ENE. If 94L wanted to have a decent chance it was better to move ESE and away from the influence of the front.

At 1800 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.0°N and 87°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 65 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

Well I actually think the ENE might help it down the road because most of the models have it diving SE when the ridge builds in and making land interaction which causes its ultimate demise so the more northerly it goes it will be harder to run into Honduras. I don't think the trough will carry it out or kill it either.

I for one have not been following the models too much because they have not done well IMO. I am going with current observations and see how it plays out.

yrs i agree with you let play it out

[gatorcane]

Euro coming in. Here's the 48hr panel valid 7am CDT Sunday. Cold front dipping well south across the western Caribbean. 94L is that weak frontal low east of Honduras. The low moves west and inland into Honduras by Monday. Plenty of dry air and increasing wind shear across the NW Caribbean. I wouldn't read too much into the different terminology or different development chances between Beven & Avila at the NHC. I'd say that chances are below 10%, maybe in the 5% range for any significant spin-up in the NW Caribbean next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Euro.JPG

Looking at the GFS model from the 12Z run, it doesn't seem to dip the trough as far into the NW Caribbean as the ECMWF by Sunday. That keeps the strong shear further north and could allow for some slow development. If this invest does not get absorbed by the trough, it would have a chance, but it does appear that is a low chance but not 0% though.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, I am finding a hard time making out where the LLC is now. Could be obscured by clouds or it could have died. Latest BEST TRACK shows pressures have risen 2MB which is not a good sign for development.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been way too weak with trofs/fronts across the Gulf over the past month. As I'd mentioned earlier, the GFS didn't even drive a front down through the Gulf the first week of October (from 5 days out). Euro had it pegged way before the GFS. I'd go with the Euro's forecast beyond 3-4 days. Though the GFS indicates a strong front moving out across the Gulf by next Friday, the Euro is even stronger and faster with the front. No way any TC could survive in the Gulf by this time next week (and not very easily now).

[HURAKAN]

I know it's hard for some people but ...

[stormlover2013]

Poof if it's gone

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Euro coming in. Here's the 48hr panel valid 7am CDT Sunday. Cold front dipping well south across the western Caribbean. 94L is that weak frontal low east of Honduras. The low moves west and inland into Honduras by Monday. Plenty of dry air and increasing wind shear across the NW Caribbean. I wouldn't read too much into the different terminology or different development chances between Beven & Avila at the NHC. I'd say that chances are below 10%, maybe in the 5% range for any significant spin-up in the NW Caribbean next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Euro.JPG

Looking at the GFS model from the 12Z run, it doesn't seem to dip the trough as far into the NW Caribbean as the ECMWF by Sunday. That keeps the strong shear further north and could allow for some slow development. If this invest does not get absorbed by the trough, it would have a chance, but it does appear that is a low chance but not 0% though.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, I am finding a hard time making out where the LLC is now. Could be obscured by clouds or it could have died. Latest BEST TRACK shows pressures have risen 2MB which is not a good sign for development.

Earlier today you could easily make out the circulation, but now it's almost nonexistent. I think it has for the most part merged with the front, if that is the case I think it's over.

[floridasun78]

still invest we cannot let it go maybe 8pm but not now nhc still got in outlook some you dont read outlook their pro

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm sorry...I had to!!!

[StarmanHDB]

"It's over Johnny!"

[NDG]

The cool dry air all the way down into the NW Caribbean, with a dewpoint all the way down to 75 degrees in Cancun this evening, brrrr!!!!!


Conditions at: MMUN (CANCUN , MX) observed 2143 UTC 24 October 2014
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.82 inches Hg (1009.9 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (70 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 knots; 3.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 miles (10 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 8000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 25000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[floridasun78]

NOOOOOOT DEADDDDDD YETTTTTT WX COOKING BONE FOR DINNER

[floridasun78]

invest live other day http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi