WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning.

[cycloneye]

Eye has disappeared. We need a microwave sat to find out what's happened

There is what is left of eye.

[ozonepete]

Thanks Luis!

[ozonepete]

No way that's 130 knots

[phwxenthusiast]

Ingested a massive amount of dry air overnight from the north and west. eastern half of the eyewall has eroded. probably a cat 3 at this point me thinks. good news for PH!

[wxman57]

I think landfall will be on the northern Coast of Leyte, around 12.2N/12.3N. A bit south of JTWC's current forecast and a little north of the JMA's. Probably closer to the current JTWC's landfall point. I still think JTWC is too far north. Center appears to be about at 12N now. Note that the surface center will be toward the lower part of the eye as viewed by satellite.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Agreed. It's turning westerly, or may turn WSW. I'm thinking landfall near Tacloban.

I think even the JMA's is a tad north

"EURO-NAIL"

[Alyono]

massive flooding and mudslides will occur from this since this will be moving so slowly.

I wouldn't be surprised if some areas see up to 5 feet of rain, especially in the mountains

[Alyono]

also, this looks a bit better organized. That microwave was the lowest resolution and may not have accurately reflected what is going on. The eye may clear out again in the coming hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would agree on ECMWF and GFS's landfall position, although I would favor a more west to west-southwesterly track while traversing the northern portion of Visayas, and NOT LUZON.

[ozonepete]

Is anyone noticing the very dry air getting pulled in on the southeastern side? This is great news for the Philippines because this is going to really weaken it even more before it makes landfall. Also, a new reinforcing trough over China is coming towards this from the northwest - a new push that will force a recurve. All of this of course is good news for the Philippines so let's hope it pans out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Only a tad north, but I think center is at 12.1N.

22W HAGUPIT 141206 0000 12.2N 127.4E WPAC 120 933


Here is JMA

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 6 December 2014

<Analyses at 06/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N12°05'(12.1°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S280km(150NM)

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 060011

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 05/2332Z

C. 12.25N

D. 127.42E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE; DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2025Z 12.05N 127.87E SSMS


LONG

[ozonepete]

Ok. So JMA is 120 knots and the T6.0 numbers Luis just posted only support about 115 knots. Both are probably generous.

I also doubt its forward speed is even 6 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ok. So JMA is 120 knots and the T6.0 numbers Luis just posted only support about 115 knots. Both are probably generous.

JMA is 100 kts, meaning 114 kts. However, you may be right as Koba scale is 120 kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My unofficial track



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[ozonepete]

Ok. So JMA is 120 knots and the T6.0 numbers Luis just posted only support about 115 knots. Both are probably generous.

JMA is 100 kts, meaning 114 kts. However, you may be right as Koba scale is 120 kts.

Thanks for the correction my friend.

Btw you can see why the forward speed is becoming critical to the forecast. Personally what bothers me is that I haven't heard a single reference from JMA, JTWC or any other party about the upwelling problem. At its current very slow forward speed there is surely some pretty significant upwelling going on and it will get worse. This has to be causing some of the noticeable weakening we are seeing. And if this continues, the lower level steering winds, which are southwesterly, will sharply recurve it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ok. So JMA is 120 knots and the T6.0 numbers Luis just posted only support about 115 knots. Both are probably generous.

JMA is 100 kts, meaning 114 kts. However, you may be right as Koba scale is 120 kts.

Thanks for the correction my friend.

Btw you can see why the forward speed is becoming critical to the forecast. Personally what bothers me is that I haven't heard a single reference from JMA, JTWC or any other party about the upwelling problem. At its current very slow forward speed there is surely some pretty significant upwelling going on and it will get worse. This has to be causing some of the noticeable weakening we are seeing. And if this continues, the lower level steering winds, which are southwesterly, will sharply recurve it.

So where do you think the first landfall will be?

And how strong the winds would be in Cebu City?

[Alyono]

This is in no way, shape, or form, going to recurve or be steered by the low level winds.

This is going nearly due west through the Philippines, just as has been forecast for the past 4 days

[dexterlabio]

A slow moving typhoon is never a good thing in the Philippines. Only good thing is that further upwelling will reduce its wind power.