WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[stormkite]

Typhoon anyone?

Yeah think so when the low climbs up to 10 N


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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Would this invest be the lowest-latitude ever tropical cyclone in WPAC if it develops at 2N?

I'm not sure. Check out typhoon Vamei. It hit Singapore and Malaysia then eventually dissipating. Vamei was retired and replaced by Peipah and whats funny is that the next storm name (this storm) is Peipah.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 05W.

05W FIVE 140402 1800 1.9N 148.1E WPAC 20 1002

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC upgrades to TD 05W.

05W FIVE 140402 1800 1.9N 148.1E WPAC 20 1002

Wow. What a low latitude for a TD! What's weird for me is that they classified this as 20 knots, though it has the look of a FULL FLEDGED [30-kt] tropical depression.

If this gets named, it would have the name PEIPAH, replacement for VAMEI, which means this is the open Pacific repeat. If VAMEI was never retired, this would be VAMEI, eerily similar, which means that we would have 2 VAMEI records!

This would set records for low latitude and would be tied with Vamei, its retired counterpart.

[cycloneye]

JMA:

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 3 April 2014
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N1°30'(1.5°)
E147°30'(147.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N2°40'(2.7°)
E144°40'(144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

amazing...

already our 5th cyclone of the season...

Now we wait for the 5 day forecast...

[euro6208]

Would this invest be the lowest-latitude ever tropical cyclone in WPAC if it develops at 2N?

I'm sure there are many low latitude cyclones over here but the first one comes to mind is Vamei in 2001...

It peaked at 75 knots just 1.5N of the equator! It shortly make landfall as a minimal typhoon over Singapore...

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 05W.

05W FIVE 140402 1800 1.9N 148.1E WPAC 20 1002

Wow. What a low latitude for a TD! What's weird for me is that they classified this as 20 knots, though it has the look of a FULL FLEDGED [30-kt] tropical depression.

If this gets named, it would have the name PEIPAH, replacement for VAMEI, which means this is the open Pacific repeat. If VAMEI was never retired, this would be VAMEI, eerily similar, which means that we would have 2 VAMEI records!

This would set records for low latitude and would be tied with Vamei, its retired counterpart.

They made an update to increase the winds to 25kts.

05W FIVE 140403 0000 1.8N 147.7E WPAC 25 1004

[xtyphooncyclonex]

amazing...

already our 5th cyclone of the season...

Now we wait for the 5 day forecast...

waiting....

[dexterlabio]

The previous model runs, though they show a recurve, are still quite threatening...the recurve point shown is close to land, and a slight push to the west would take the center of the storm inland before moving out to sea.

[stormkite]

amazing...

already our 5th cyclone of the season...

Now we wait for the 5 day forecast...

Yeah its amazing considering its only 25 knots.

05W FIVE 140403 0000 1.8N 147.7E WPAC 25 1004

[stormstrike]

JTWC forecast track is out. 75 kts max winds on its 5th day forecast and its heading towards the Philippines..

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951Z APR 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 1.8N 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 1.8N 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 1.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 2.8N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 3.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 4.8N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 6.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 7.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 8.5N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 1.8N 147.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI 021951Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
022000).

[cycloneye]

Here is the reasoning discussion.

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 022233Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS TWO FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES SPIRALING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE EASTERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS
FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING
AND GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TOWARD THE ISLAND OF PALAU. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE ISLAND OF PALAU
AND INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST AFTER
TAU 72, WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH CURRENTLY
LIMITED, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A
SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
INFANCY OF THE SYSTEM, THERE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, this could reach category 3 status and also be a JMA typhoon. This may also be the worst typhoon to strike the Philippines on April. This is horrible for us here in the Visayas.

[wxman57]

Or it may just reach mid tropical storm strength and dissipate as it moves into the east-central Philippines in 6 days, as per the global models. It's a bit early for a strong typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Or it may just reach mid tropical storm strength and dissipate as it moves into the east-central Philippines in 6 days, as per the global models. It's a bit early for a strong typhoon.

Hope so, but well the MJO will come. NAVGEM and CMC are also bullish on this storm. JMA also forecasts a tropical storm within 24 hours. Also the conditions now are favorable enough for tropical cyclone development this time. Ocean Heat Content is a record highs right now, even high than during typhoon Haiyan but I don't expect this to reach super typhoon strength though. Well, ECMWF at first expected a powerful but compact typhoon making landfall over the southern Philippines but they always change their forecast when their scenario gets closer to reality.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I find typhoons fun to track but, what I hate about them is its deadly effects and devastation across affected areas. I hope that this will not bring deadly effects. Haiyan victims are also extremely traumatized and hope that this may not bring trauma to them.

[wxman57]

Not much heat potential in its path, particularly near day 5 just east of the Philippines.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well still, the conditions are favorable enough as it is also seen in the Prognostic Reasoning of TD 05W. Also, this storm looks impressive. It has that typical look of a TD which will intensify into a typhoon.