ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Hurricaneman]

I agree Hispaniola could really change things. That said, the water near Cuba is the warmest in the basin - look at Gustav for example, went from a weak tropical storm off Hispaniola to nearly a Cat 5 approaching Cuba before weakening.

Oh yeah, as we have discussed thoroughly on another thread about the warm SSTs in the Bahamas, FL Straits and NW Caribbean, there will be the potential of a system rapidly strengthening if it moves over these areas, as well as the Gulf of Mexico. I was simply pointing out that this potential system (96L) just may not just "graze" through the Greater Antilles. Could be that it rams right into Hispaniola and really get disrupted. We will just have to see. But, even if it does make impact with Hispaniola, the conditions are favorable for 96L to recover and even re-intensify strongly again. We shall see how it pans out..

Didn't Frederic in 1979 ram into Hispaniola and nearly die before intensifying as it headed to Alabama as a cat 3\4 hurricane, hopefully this one doesn't do that

[northjaxpro]

I agree Hispaniola could really change things. That said, the water near Cuba is the warmest in the basin - look at Gustav for example, went from a weak tropical storm off Hispaniola to nearly a Cat 5 approaching Cuba before weakening.

Oh yeah, as we have discussed thoroughly on another thread about the warm SSTs in the Bahamas, FL Straits and NW Caribbean, there will be the potential of a system rapidly strengthening if it moves over these areas, as well as the Gulf of Mexico. I was simply pointing out that this potential system (96L) just may not just "graze" through the Greater Antilles. Could be that it rams right into Hispaniola and really get disrupted. We will just have to see. But, even if it does make impact with Hispaniola, the conditions are favorable for 96L to recover and even re-intensify strongly again. We shall see how it pans out..

Didn't Frederic in 1979 ram into Hispaniola and nearly die before intensifying as it headed to Alabama as a cat 3\4 hurricane, hopefully this one doesn't do that

Yes, Frederic did impact Hispaniola, on the heels of David. 1979 was a terrible year for Hispaniola with hurricanes.

[Jagno]

OH MY LANTA!

I just got through moving everything out of my family room and garage apartment so that repairs to the roof and replacing sheetrock ceiling can be done from these violent storms we've been having. And now the GFS is putting a hurricane at my front door. Geeesh, not again!

[wyq614]

It's scary for me to learn that this may be a Cuba threat...

Does this mean we can get reports from Cuba now? That's a first, isn't it?

Yes, I'm here in Havana ready to let you know what's going on here, as the majority of Havana residents don't even have access to the Internet, they know nothing at this moment about the potential threat to them.

I have no TC-dealing experiences so I think if a hurricane really knocks on my door I don't really know what to do. So I'll check carefully the sections about Hurricane Preparation these days.

[Dean4Storms]

Well the Chinese model CMA does nothing with it.

[latitude_20]

OH MY LANTA!

I just got through moving everything out of my family room and garage apartment so that repairs to the roof and replacing sheetrock ceiling can be done from these violent storms we've been having. And now the GFS is putting a hurricane at my front door. Geeesh, not again!

Too early to worry. Still just an elongated area of low pressure, and if it does develop, could end up anywhere from the Bahamas to the Yucatan.

That said, conditions in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are about as favorable as they've been all season, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Wouldn't mind a strong tropical storm on the lower Texas coast coming right up through the center of the state and helping get us out of this drought.

[SFLcane]

18z nogaps hurricane heading wnw in bahamas towards sfl.

[Yellow Evan]

Well the Chinese model CMA does nothing with it.

Do they post models online anywhere?

[wyq614]

Well the Chinese model CMA does nothing with it.

Do they post models online anywhere?

They do, but only for China and Eurasia regions.

[Dean4Storms]

Well the Chinese model CMA does nothing with it.

Do they post models online anywhere?

I got it off WeatherBell.

[bamajammer4eva]

18z GFS Ens showed N Central gulf coast

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 200036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20140820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140820 0000 140820 1200 140821 0000 140821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 51.5W 10.3N 52.8W 11.3N 54.2W 12.2N 56.0W
BAMD 9.5N 51.5W 9.8N 53.6W 10.3N 55.8W 10.9N 58.0W
BAMM 9.5N 51.5W 9.9N 53.4W 10.5N 55.3W 11.3N 57.3W
LBAR 9.5N 51.5W 10.0N 54.4W 10.6N 57.6W 11.1N 60.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140822 0000 140823 0000 140824 0000 140825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 58.4W 16.1N 64.4W 18.6N 71.2W 20.5N 77.1W
BAMD 11.7N 60.2W 14.0N 64.1W 16.2N 67.4W 18.0N 70.2W
BAMM 12.6N 59.4W 15.4N 63.9W 18.4N 68.9W 21.6N 73.8W
LBAR 11.7N 64.4W 13.0N 70.2W 17.6N 72.7W 19.6N 77.1W
SHIP 68KTS 84KTS 87KTS 87KTS
DSHP 68KTS 84KTS 76KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 51.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 48.9W DIRM12 = 252DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 46.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Latest update of tracks.

[sunnyday]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

[ronjon]

S Fl better hope the BAMM or GFS ensemble mean tracks don't pan out. A storm coming off Hispaniola has plenty of warm water to intensify prior to reaching S Florida.

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z GFS Ens showed N Central gulf coast

Secondary cluster off SE coast. Two camps now it seems, one north of the Greater Antilles and one scraping/south of them.

[tropicwatch]

Latest update of tracks.

Looks like most models depict this system making it to the US mainland at some point.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS tomorrow through the 28th

[SFLcane]

Northward shift on models from 18z

[gatorcane]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now: